12/12/2007
And everything looks so complete
When you're walkin' out on the street
And the wind catches your feet
And sends you flyin', cryin'
Ooh-wee!
The wild night is calling—Van Morrison, "Wild Nights"
If there were ever a more apt song to describe what's happened lately in the equity markets, I'd like to hear it.
Just when most of us thought Santa Claus was coming to town, Mr. Scrooge, I mean Mr. Ben Bernanke, decided to leave a little coal in everyone's stocking. I exaggerate, of course, because the real Scrooges on Wall Street were the institutional traders that wanted to see a 50-basis-point reduction in both the federal funds rate and the discount rate. Of course, Fed Chairman Bernanke and crew only gave us a 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate and the discount rate.
The short-term satisfaction seekers that most Wall Street pros are, the disappointment over the lack of a deeper rate cut on Tuesday played out in the market big time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged nearly 300 points by the end of the session. It was proof that Wall Street wasn't too happy with the Fed's decision.
So, what will it be for the market now that the Fed has spoken? Are we going to see a recession or just an economic slowdown? Or, are we staring at the beginnings of a healthy recovery?
One way to take the pulse of things going forward is to let the market speak to us. By monitoring the key resistance and support levels on the S&P 500 index, we can get a sense of what the market thinks will take place.
I say that for an economic recovery to take hold, the S&P 500 must remain above 1460. If we get just a slowdown without a recession, we likely will trade in a range similar to what we've witnessed over the past six months. If, however, we fall below 1405, that could be interpreted as Wall Street's sign that things are going to get a lot worse.
Given this critical juncture for stocks, it really behooves you to follow the price movement of the S&P 500 closely. If you are invested in stocks, make sure you have a contingency plan in place in case this market turns south. Also, take a look at overseas opportunities, since many of those markets are not as susceptible to our domestic market's recent bout of volatility.
Above all, be prepared for more wild nights a callin'.
Those who know me even casually know that I simply love exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The way I see it, there is no better tool in Wall Street's shed when you want to get exposure to either stocks or bonds. And, if it's specific market sectors you are after, then ETFs are really the vehicle for you.
I love ETFs because they are simple to understand, simple to own and inexpensive when compared to mutual funds. Of course, ETFs also can be extremely profitable — provided you're in the right ETFs at the right time.
I've been telling subscribers to my Successful Investing advisory service that investing in international ETFs is going to be hugely profitable in the year ahead. Why do I say that? Well, first off, the global economic boom that started a few years ago is just now hitting its full stride. With all of the growth in China, India, Brazil, Japan, Canada and the European Union (EU), you'd be hard pressed to go wrong investing in these booming markets.
Another reason why I think now is a good time to get your money invested internationally is based on the superior track record of international funds when compared to similar domestic funds.
Take a look at the performance chart of the iShares MSCI EAFA (EFA), a diversified international ETF, when plotted alongside the performance of the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY). Now there is no question that over the past five years both EFA and SPY have performed very well. But just look at how much better EFA has done than SPY.
A 76.19% return on SPY is indeed great performance, but wouldn't you have liked to see the returns EFA gave you over this same time period? That return of 173.27% is tremendous, and with the global economic boom still in full swing, I suspect that we will get even more upside in international funds during the next five years.
I hope the performance data above gets you thinking about going global in your portfolio. I know it has me very excited, and that's why subscribers to my Successful Investing advisory service have a significant portion of their portfolio allocated to international ETFs.
The table below shows my short list of favorite international ETFs as we head into 2008.
Do you want to find out which international funds I currently am recommending in Successful Investing?
Do you want to get yourself on board the global growth train in 2008?
If so, all you have to do is click here.
I am enjoying my daily conversations with readers around the country, and one subject that keeps cropping up is what to do with Variable Annuities (VAs).
Should you roll over your existing annuity? Should you spend it? What is the most tax-effective way to get money out? Do indexed annuities make sense? Are all the promises that annuity companies make true?
Honestly, I don't have all the answers myself, but if you know what questions to ask, you're usually able to make a well-informed decision by seeking out the right assistance. That's why I am proud to announce the return of the FREE annuity coaching sessions.
I've always found that these annuity coaching sessions -- specifically geared toward helping individual investors understand the sometimes confusing landscape of variable annuities -- help me better understand what's on investors' minds. They also aid me in helping you to figure out the right way to properly manage your VA.
Understanding annuities requires experience and knowledge. I want all my Alert subscribers to know all of their options before making decisions. If I can help you with your annuity questions, please just pop me an e-mail and let me know.
If you would like to get your FREE annuity coaching session with Doug Fabian, simply send an e-mail.
If you currently own real estate, or if you want to buy or sell a property anytime soon, it is critical to understand what's really going on in this topsy-turvy market.
One of the best insights I've seen on the real situation in housing appeared in a recent Marketwatch.com article by columnist Herb Greenberg. In his extremely interesting piece, Greenberg publishes comments written by mortgage industry insider Mark Hansen.
Hansen is a 20-year veteran of the mortgage industry who has spent most of his career in the wholesale and correspondent residential arena. According to Greenberg, Hansen has been "pretty much on target" with his assessment of what's happened so far in the housing market.
I must say that after reading what Hansen had to say about the conditions in the mortgage market, even I — someone who's been warning about the dangers of a housing bubble since 2005 — had to pause at just how uncomfortable things really are.
In the coming weeks, I will be writing a series of articles about the mortgage meltdown and what it means to you and your wealth. As a primer to my series, I urge all of you to read Greenberg's column. This must-read article is a great first step to understanding why it's not just subprime loans that will soon infect the entire housing market.
To read this article, just click here.
As I am a big fan of metaphor to help bring clarity to the subjects of investing and personal finance, I want to introduce you to a metaphor I think perfectly illustrates the kind of service we provide at Fabian Wealth Strategies.
First, picture your financial holdings as an automobile that will take you down the highway toward your ultimate destination, retirement. In order to get to that destination, you have to make sure your auto is equipped for the journey.
You have to make sure you have enough gas, you have to check your oil regularly, you have to check your tire pressure and you have to pay attention to all the traffic signs along the way.
Failure to do any one of these things can result in your being stranded on the side of the road.
Fortunately, getting your financial automobile back in perfect operating condition is what Fabian Wealth Strategies is all about.
Think of us as your financial roadside assistance provider.
At Fabian Wealth Strategies, we can help you correct any neglected aspects of your financial automobile. If you need more life insurance, we'll tell you. If you need to generate more income, we'll identify that, too. Need to increase your tax-deferred investments? We can show you how.
Taking this analogy a step further, you might say that in addition to being your financial roadside assistance provider, we also are master mechanics. That means we can rebuild your engine and get your automobile firing on all cylinders.
If you are in need of some financial roadside assistance, Fabian Wealth Strategies can help. For more information about Fabian Wealth Strategies, or to schedule your very own coaching session, please visit our new Web site.
You can also schedule your very own coaching session by calling David Fabian at 800.391.1118, or just e-mailing him.
The innovation never stops in Fabian land.
You've already been told about our new asset management and wealth coaching services Web site, and I invite you all to check and see if wealth coaching is right for you.
But wealth coaching isn't the only new rabbit in our bag of tricks. For you fans of my radio program, we have a new show airing in the Phoenix, Ariz., market every Monday morning from 8-9 a.m. PST.
The Monday show can be heard on AM 1510 KFNN in Phoenix and adjacent markets. If you don't live in the area, you still can listen live or get a podcast of the show.
And finally, do you want to know how your mutual funds are performing? If you've been worried about the performance of your funds, then you are in luck.
We have just launched the new Fabian Lemon List, which is a complete rundown of America's worst-performing mutual funds. To find out more about the Lemon List, and to get our free special report, Turning Lemons Into Lemonade, just click here. The report and the Lemon List are both free, so get yours today!
Want to hear my latest rant about the state of the financial markets? Well, now listening, and even watching, is as easy as a mouse click.
To listen to the audio blog, simply click here.
Not satisfied by just listening? Would you rather watch me on YouTube?
Well, now you can. It's the latest addition to the Fabian bag of tricks, our brand new video blog.
We invite all Alert readers to check it out. We assure you it's worth it.
Just click here for your Fabian aural -- and now visual fixation.
"...I am too firm in my consciousness of the marvelous to be ever fascinated by the mere supernatural, which (take it any way you like) is but a manufactured article..."
—Joseph Conrad, from the author's note to The Shadow Line
The author's great novella, The Shadow Line, often was mistaken for having a strong supernatural theme. But as Conrad suggests in the author's note, awareness of the many mysteries and marvels in the real world are enough to postulate the folly of supernatural contemplation. The lesson to come away with here is that the world that we live in is filled with awesome wonder and enchantment, and all we really have to do is open our eyes to realize it.