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POISED FOR A POP

01/03/2008

There's no denying that 2008 got off to a rocky start for those in the bull camp. And while Wednesday's market selling could be indicative of what's to come this year, I think the more likely scenario at least in the short run is today's stabilization in stocks.

The way I see it, I think we are poised for a pop here as we kick off 2008. Today's report of an increase in new jobs during December helped ease concerns about an economic slowdown, and while that certainly isn't enough evidence to say things are going to be rosy this year, I do think that when it comes to the market and its current trading range we now are at the point where things look attractive again for buyers.

As you can see from the chart here of the S&P 500, we've essentially been mired in a trading range from about 1440 to just over 1520 throughout most of 2007. Given Wednesday's close of 1447, I think we are staring at the prospect of some nice upside during the short term.

As we enter the new year, I think we could see a nice breakout above the 1520 mark, and that breakout could indeed be the start of a really nice bull run for the overall markets.

Now in addition to what I suspect will be a nice breakout from this current trading range for the overall market, there continues to be some great sector opportunities out there as we start the year. Technology, health care, international stocks and even bonds are all looking vibrant as we head into 2008.

What this year will bring, and when we're liable to get going forward remains to be seen, but if you are like me you are looking forward to another year of dynamic market action influenced by fundamental, technical and, this year especially, political events destined to shape our economy and the markets.

If you'd like to find out how subscribers to my Successful Investing advisory service are positioning their portfolios to take advantage of the tremendous opportunities in 2008, I invite you to click here.


What To Watch In 2008

Want to know what you should be looking at in 2008? Of course, we all want to know what the keys to the kingdom will be in the year ahead, but nobody has a crystal ball, and nobody can tell you for sure what will be the key developments shaping the year.

What we can say with confidence is that some things are definitely worth keeping very close tabs on right now. Here are five of the trends I think we should all be carefully examining as we dive into 2008.

1. Home prices, home sales and housing inventory numbers. The housing bear market of 2007 isn't going anywhere in 2008. In fact, I think we are headed for a lot more trouble on the home front during the next 12 months and even beyond. That said there will come a time when the next great real estate buying opportunity hits, and that is when you've got to be prepared to take action.

2. Mortgage rates. The real estate bear will continue being fueled by the lack of available mortgage money in 2008. I've always said that someday mortgage money will be hard to come by, and that day is definitely here. If you need a jumbo loan (a loan valued at more than $417,000) you also are going to have to pay a jumbo rate. And, if you have even the slightest blemish on your credit you can forget about getting that home loan. If mortgage money continues being scarce, look for more housing woes ahead.

3. Interest rates. There is a big decoupling going on right now between Treasury bond rates, corporate bond rates and consumer credit card and auto loan interest rates. The spread between AAA credit ratings and everything else is becoming greater and greater, and this situation is something that must be watched closely in 2008. We know the Federal Reserve is watching this phenomenon take place, but despite what many people think, the Fed doesn't control market rates like Treasury and corporate bond rates. These rates are determined by investors, and if the value of money becomes distorted the situation could spell trouble for the economy at large.

4. The falling U.S. dollar. What can you say about the fate of the greenback in 2007 that can't be said better by a quick look at the chart below?

The dollar traded below its long-term, 200-day moving average (red line) for the entirety of 2007, and the outlook for the once-mighty currency remains bleak. If we see the dollar continue its big slide, inflation will get worse and limit the Fed's flexibility to modulate the cost of capital.

5. The 200-day moving average of all your investments. We just saw how the U.S. dollar traded below its 200-day moving average all of last year, but do you know where your investments stand in relation to their 200-day moving averages? If you don't, then this situation is something you will definitely want to watch in 2008. Knowing where your investments are in relation to their long-term trend line is crucial in helping you decide whether you should stick with, or release one or more of your current holdings. To determine where your stocks, mutual funds or exchange-traded funds are in relation to their 200-day moving averages, I recommend this Web site. Follow the easy instructions on the site and you can obtain all of the technical information you could ever want about any publicly traded investment you own.


New Services For A New Year


It's a new year, and that makes this the perfect time to announce the launch of two new Fabian Web sites focused on the delivery of financial education and wealth management information. These sites have been built from the ground up to deliver the latest multimedia audio streaming, video presentations, special reports, financial insight and more.

Here is a preview of what you can find at each site:

www.DougFabian.com

The radio Web site has been the anchor of our nationally syndicated radio talk show, Doug Fabian's Wealth Strategies, for several years now, but never has it been easier to keep in touch with my team of experts and me.

www.FabianWealth.com

We also are proud to introduce the launch of the new asset management Web site from Fabian Wealth Strategies.

Fabian Wealth Strategies, a registered investment advisor, is managed by my son David and me. With our combined experience of more than 30 years, we have set out to develop a unique company within the financial services industry. Our combination of asset management, financial consulting, and investor education provides a holistic approach to wealth management.

Fabian Wealth Strategies provides personalized investment management services for individuals with accounts of $250,000 and above.

To get the retirement lifestyle you want -- we believe that it's all about knowing your most important goals and then designing a detailed plan to meet them.

Other innovations in the Fabian bag of tricks include the recent launch of my new radio program, airing in the Phoenix, Ariz., market every Monday morning from 8-9 a.m. PST.

The Monday show can be heard on AM 1510 KFNN in Phoenix and adjacent markets. If you don't live in the area, you still can listen live or get a podcast of the show.

And finally, if you want to know how your mutual funds are performing, we've got you covered. We just launched the new Fabian Lemon List, which is a complete rundown of America's worst-performing mutual funds.

To find out more about the Lemon List, and to get our free special report, Turning Lemons Into Lemonade. The report and the Lemon List are both free, so get yours today!

As you can see, when it comes to innovation, constant improvement, and a never-ending commitment to help you build your wealth, the Fabian squad will continue to be on the job and there for you in 2008, and for many more decades to come.


Rational Poetry


This being our first Alert of the year, I thought I'd present you with something a little different. The following poem was written by my friend and long-time colleague Jim Woods. Jim is a fantastic writer who uses words as if they were weapons in defense of virtues such as liberty, rationality and the free market. In this piece, he praises the virtue of commerce, and he tells us all how important it is to protect and defend what makes modern life possible.

Trust Of A Child

By Jim Woods

Defenses down
I stare out at the harbor in wonder
A perch paid for with poetry
My spirit resonates with pride

The light of a thousand enterprises
Flickers with the power of thought
So many abstractions put into motion
So many lives sustained

The effort of creation
Plays out in the distance
A port for the best within us
Ushers in the material of modern life

On guard against that which threatens
All that civilization has acquired
I pick up the pen
Like a sentinel on alert

Securing that which is sacred
The mission of preservation never rests
I'll traverse the winds of progress
With the trust of a child


They're Baaack! The Return of Free Annuity Coaching Sessions


I am enjoying my daily conversations with readers around the country, and one subject that keeps cropping up is what to do with Variable Annuities (VAs).

Should you roll over your existing annuity? Should you spend it? What is the most tax-effective way to get money out? Do indexed annuities make sense for you? Are all the promises that annuity companies make true?

Honestly, I don't have all the answers myself, but if you know what questions to ask, you're usually able to make a well-informed decision by seeking out the right assistance. That's why I am proud to announce the return of the FREE annuity coaching sessions.

I've always found that these annuity coaching sessions -- specifically geared toward helping individual investors understand the sometimes confusing landscape of variable annuities -- help me better understand what's on investors' minds. Those sessions also aid me in helping you to figure out the right way to properly manage your VA.

Understanding annuities requires experience and knowledge. I want all of my Alert subscribers to know all of their options before making decisions. If I can help you with your annuity questions, please just pop me an e-mail and let me know.

If you want to get your FREE annuity coaching session with Doug Fabian, simply send an e-mail.


Blogs Away: A Fabian Aural 9

Want to hear my latest rant on the state of the financial markets? Well, now listening, and even watching, is as easy as a mouse click.

To listen to the audio blog, simply click here.


"Rush"-ing Into The Year

From the point of conception
To the moment of truth
At the point of surrender
To the burden of proof
From the point of ignition
To the final drive
The point of the journey is not to arrive

—Rush, "Prime Mover"

These profound lyrics from arguably the greatest rock band in history are a perfect way to usher in the new year. You see, when it comes to the journey that is your life, the point truly is not to arrive. Keep striving, keep exploring, keep growing, and keep loving as deeply and as intensely as you can. You have but one life my friend; why not drink up every moment?

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