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Your Risk-Management Roadmap

03/24/2010

The sharp sell-off we witnessed in late January and early February, followed by the 180-degree turnaround in stocks from early February to the present has many investors in a quandary about how best to navigate this tricky market terrain. I’ll admit that I’ve found it hard to identify a good entry point for putting new money to work in stocks. I’ve also found the going treacherous for knowing when finally to liquidate long positions held for the past six weeks.

I think a good way to help determine both the buy points and sell points in this market is to develop a roadmap of sorts. The six-month chart below of the S&P 500 Index is just such a roadmap.

As you can see, stocks now trade around 1,170, a mark just slightly below their 52-week high. The key level of technical support on the S&P 500 is 1,120, which is where the 50-day moving average now sits.

I think if the market does start to fall, this will be the key metric to watch. If stocks were to come down to 1,120 and then start to see some buyers step in, it would be a very bullish sign that could be viewed as a buy signal for investors currently on the sidelines.

If, however, stocks were to break below 1,120 and make their way down to 1,080, then I say lookout below. The breaching of this technical support line would constitute a bearish market signal that could be a huge trigger to get out of the market completely, or to start buying bear-market funds that make money when equities are in decline.

So, what happens if stocks continue going higher from here? Though I think this scenario is unlikely, I’ve been proven wrong on this front many times. Obviously, if you are long here, then there’s nothing wrong with riding the wave higher. Just make sure you have your stop losses in place to protect your gains.

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