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Will Stocks Ever Go Down Again?

04/07/2010

There’s no denying that this market currently is immersed in the strongest uptrend we’ve seen in the past decade. Stocks have made a miraculous recovery off of the dramatic lows of March 2009, and now it feels like stocks will never go down again. Even in the face of bad news, this market keeps pushing higher and higher.

One reason for this constant push higher is the number of professional money managers that have been underinvested during the sharp run up. I know firsthand how this feels, as I’m one of those managers who have been very cautious about adding money to the market here.

Now, despite the seemingly endless move higher in stocks, whatever you do, please don’t be lulled into the misperception that stocks aren’t capable of a fast and furious correction. Right now, with the market trading so far above its respective 50- and 200-day moving averages, you have to be even more cautious when it comes to putting money to work.

During bear markets, I see investors throw in the towel and jump out of stocks right at the market low. Now, I’m seeing the opposite happen, with investors finally capitulating and just throwing their money into stocks at these elevated levels. I caution you not to make that mistake. If you’re feeling like you are underinvested, believe me, you are not alone. I’m there, too, and I know it’s not the greatest feeling.

Just keep in mind that you don’t want to put money to work now based on emotion, or on fears of missing the boat. There always will be opportunities to buy, and at much more attractive levels than we see right now. The best action for you to take right here if you feel underinvested is to exercise an act of patience, and just wait for the inevitable cooldown of this red-hot market.

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