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Where Has All the Worry Gone?

05/12/2010

As I write today’s Alert, I’ve just come from giving a seminar at the Las Vegas Money Show. The buzz at this year’s show is all about the market’s recent machinations, including the Dow’s wild, 700-point swing last Thursday. There’s also some buzz about Greece’s debt crisis, as well as the near trillion-dollar bailout just agreed upon by the European Union.

Despite these concerns, I have to say that the real revelation this year to me is the tremendous bullishness that’s come from the many financial professionals and show attendees I’ve spoken with so far. It seems like the worry about the future of equities has all but gone after the past couple of positive trading sessions.

Hey, I know that people generally like to look at the bright side when it comes to the market. I also know that wishing doesn’t make it so. None of the underlying fiscal problems in Europe are gone. In fact, that huge bailout is a recipe for more debt disaster down the road. I think that this situation could really explode in the months and years to come, but for now, traders largely have jumped back on the equity bandwagon.

A quick look at three charts below -- the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), the iShares EAFE Index (EFA) and the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI) -- show that after last week’s huge drubbing, stocks around the globe now have managed to recover a healthy portion of their losses.

Keep in mind, however, that all three of these major market segments still are below both their 50- and 200-day moving averages. Until we see these sectors break back above their respective 50-day moving averages, my market needle will remain pointed at the “extreme danger” setting. Of course, at some point, we will get the “all clear” signal and, when we do, it will serve as the green light I’ve been waiting for to get back into this market.

If you would like to find out when that signal turns green, i.e., when it is finally safe to return to equities, then you need my Successful Investing advisory service.

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