05/19/2010
The belch from the entity I’m calling “Mr. Volatility” can be heard on Wall Street in a big way. The markets actually finished in positive territory last week, but the wild buying last Monday and Tuesday was followed by as nearly a wild sell-off on Thursday and Friday. So far this week, stocks have continued their downward flight, not just here in the United States, but in nearly every major market around the world.
Looking at the chart here of the S&P 500 Index, we see the benchmark U.S. index trading near its long-term, 200-day moving average (red line). Just a couple of weeks ago, the S&P 500 was almost back to breaking above its short-term, 50-day moving average, after a precipitous fall that began in earnest in late April.
The tumult in the U.S. markets may be giving you nausea, but the domestic markets are actually a bromide when compared to the markets of Europe and China. Take a look at the chart below of the iShares Europe 350 (IEV). As you can see, owners of this fund are closer to a heart attack than they are mere stomach cramps.
A look at the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI) provides further evidence that international markets are no longer the place for your money. Unless you plan on shorting these two markets, I’d avoid both like the proverbial plague.
It’s clear that for now U.S. equities are holding up much better than most other big world markets. But within the U.S. market, there are certain sectors that have held up much better than others. In the table below, we see the performance of some of the biggest market sector exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
As you can see, there are a few funds that remain well above their respective 200-day moving averages, notably the SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and the SPDR Industrial Sector (XLI). The other sectors now either trade slightly above, or well below, their respective long-term trend lines.
The takeaway here from the current tumult is that you must be very, very cautious with your portfolio right now. I suggest that if you are thinking about putting money to work here, that you think a second time. Remember, there is no harm in being patient with your investment capital. In fact, patience in a time of tumult is often your greatest ally.