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The Psychology of the Contrary

09/28/2011

 

 

Since the market began its sharp turn south in August, I’ve been telling you that the risks of a further meltdown in stocks are extremely high. Anemic U.S. economic growth, perniciously high unemployment, a complete mess in Europe over the euro-zone’s debt crisis and a quagmire in Washington that threatens to bog down the nation’s progress all are atop my list of reasons to be bearish right now.

So far, the sagacity of my cautious approach to both domestic and international equities has been born out. Look at the charts here of the S&P 500 Index and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM). You don’t have to be a technical analyst to see that avoiding either of these two market segments since August has been a wise decision.

 

 

Now, given my bearish stance on this market during the past two months, what I’m about to say may come as a surprise. Right now, I am building up a list of reasons to be bullish on stocks. Though these reasons aren’t yet strong enough to override my current stance on stocks, they are getting me psychologically prepared for the coming turn in the market.

I call this kind of preparation the “psychology of the contrary,” because it helps you to orient your mind toward changing conditions before those conditions actually become a reality. You see, what investors need to realize is that the news is always the worst at market lows. A way to understand this in clichéd terms is that it always is darkest before the dawn.

Last week, stocks plunged 6.5% in what was the worst one-week performance since October 2008. As we all know, that was the height of the financial crisis and the onset of the Great Recession. Panic set in back then, and though there hasn’t been the same level of panic on the part of investors this time around, there’s certainly been a very strong undercurrent of fear tugging on investor confidence.

Yet when the masses are starting to fear implosion, that’s when it is time to don your psychological contrarian hat and start building your list of reasons to look at the glass half full.

So, precisely what’s right with the world right now?

First of all, the European debt crisis is getting closer and closer to a resolution. Euro-zone leaders have pledged not to let Greece go into default in any sort of way that would threaten the financial stability of the European Union (EU) or the region’s banking system. Saving the EU will cost a ton of money, and nobody is precisely sure what the price tag will be. However, it is in Europe’s best interest, as well as the best interest of the global economy, for EU officials to pony up the money to bail out its fiscally challenged members.

If we look closer to home, we see that despite the weakness in the economy and that über-high unemployment rate, U.S. companies at large continue to enjoy strong earnings and even stronger balance sheets. On the commodities front, we’ve seen a very healthy pullback in the price of crude oil, agricultural commodities and basic materials. That’s good news to all of us concerned with rising food and energy prices, because it means we’ll get a reprieve from inflation that results in more money in our pockets.

Finally, the Federal Reserve has pledged to keep interest rates low until well into 2013. They’ve also “twisted” their bond portfolio in an effort to reduce rates even further. The hope is that the ailing housing market will get a much-needed boost from the move. And while it remains to be seen if this maneuver will be successful, at least we have some sense of certainty that capital costs aren’t likely to rise anytime soon.

Don’t get me wrong, I have not yet turned into a bull. I am, however, getting myself psychologically prepared for a return of the bulls at some point in the not-too-distant future. When that does happen, the prepared contrarian will be able to act in his or her best interest, and without suffering the mental pangs of hesitation.

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