03/17/2010
On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve let Wall Street know that it’s going to enjoy an “extended period” of low-cost capital. The central bank was widely expected to leave interest rates untouched, and it did that. But all eyes were on the Fed’s accompanying statement, which included the “extended period” language that the bulls wanted to see.
The result was another winning day in the trading pits, and a continuation of the remarkable run that stocks have enjoyed over the past 52 weeks. Take a look at the chart below of the S&P 500 and you can see unequivocally that the march higher continues.
Stocks now are above both major trend lines, the 50- and 200-day moving averages. In fact, if we look at all of the major market averages, we see that they all trade at 52-week highs. This is good news if you’re fully invested in stocks, but if you’ve got money on the sidelines you’ve been waiting to put to work, then your circumstances are not so good.
Admittedly, I approach situations like these cautiously, as I’ve seen way too many portfolios melt down by trying to chase performance. You see, when everyone is buying and the market is largely going higher in spite of negatives such as massive budget deficits, exorbitantly high unemployment and the federal government’s potential takeover of the health-care industry, well, my worry meter starts to go into the red.
Can stocks continue marching higher for much longer? Well, during the past year, they’ve proved that they can. However, it’s also because stocks have run up so far, so fast over the past year that has me even more worried about the prospects for a continued run higher in stocks.
As always, we’ll be watching the technical indicators to see if and when a breakdown in the bullish bias of the market takes shape. When it does, you won’t want to be walking the equity high wire without a net.