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Stocks, Interest Rates and the Fed's Decision

04/27/2011

Today, we received word from the Federal Reserve that it plans to end its $600-billion Treasury bond-buying program in June, as originally planned. The Fed cited strength in the economy and the job market as two key reasons for the winding down of quantitative easing part II, or “QE2.”

Ending its two-day Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed downplayed what I fear will be the ultimate result of its current monetary stimulus -- a huge spike in inflation. The Fed did acknowledge the surge in oil prices, but it concluded the pickup in inflation only will be temporary.

Here’s the quote from the Fed’s statement that I think sums up the central bank’s take on the inflation issue, “Inflation has picked up in recent months, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable and measures of underlying inflation are still subdued.”

I don’t think Mr. Bernanke and crew have been watching the price of gold and silver of late because, if they had, I think they may have found a not-so-subdued market reaction to those stable inflation expectations.

The Fed also left interest rates at historic lows, keeping the federal funds rate at 0 to .25%, while saying that it expects to keep rates at these exceptionally low levels “for an extended period.”

Stocks reacted positively to the news that rates wouldn’t get any higher, anytime soon. And as you can see here by the chart of the S&P 500 Index, this broad measure of the market responded by jumping to a new 52-week high.

Of course, other metrics that reflect what the Fed’s been up to also jumped to new highs. One example is gold. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), an exchange-traded fund (ETF) pegged to the spot price of gold bullion, jumped to a new all-time high after the Fed’s decision on rates. The big move higher in the precious metal can be seen clearly by the chart below of GLD.

The question now is what will happen next? Will the cessation of QE2 begin to whittle away at the stock market’s gains, or has the economy reached a point where it can stand on its own without further stimulus?

We will find out in the weeks and months to come, but my thinking here is that stocks likely will continue to make gains as we continue receiving strong earnings reports from some of the biggest corporate names out there. Sure, there likely will be a few normal trading pullbacks along the way, but as we saw in March, a pullback could turn out to be a very good buying opportunity.

If you’re still waiting to put some money to work in stocks, then the next pullback just may just be your next chance.

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