02/23/2011
Social upheaval in the Middle East has once again captured center stage. This time, it’s the crisis in Libya and, even as I write this, we are seeing signs that the troubled nation might be descending into civil war. Understandably, the political turmoil within this oil-rich country has caused a huge spike in the price of crude. Midway through Wednesday’s trading, oil prices rose past $99 a barrel, as forces loyal to Libya’s crazed dictator Moammar Gadhafi violently clashed with protesters.
Now, unlike the recent upheaval in Egypt, the Libya situation is actually getting extremely violent. Also unlike Egypt, Libya plays much more of a key role when it comes to global oil production. The country produces about 1.4 million barrels of oil per day, and a disruption of this crucial supply source could keep the price of oil near the $100 a barrel mark for some time.
If we do see oil prices remain at their current elevated levels, it will have a very negative -- and very inflationary -- effect on the global economy at large, and on equity prices worldwide.
With all the fear over surging oil prices, it’s no surprise that stocks have sold off nearly 4% over the past two trading sessions. The chart below of the S&P 500 Index shows the “falling off the cliff” selling in stocks, as a reaction to the big spike in oil prices.
I suspect that this oil-triggered slide in equities could be the beginning of more selling to come. That selling likely could see stocks fall another 3-5% or more across the board.
Now, if this does happen, I do not think it means that it’s time to push the panic button. On the contrary, a little more selling would be good for this market, as it likely would clear the deck of many of the weakest holders. Of course, all bets are off if oil supplies from around the rest of the Middle East become restricted due to some sort of revolutionary contagion throughout the region.
I suspect that once the current bout of Libya-induced selling subsides, we will see a great opportunity to buy stocks at a discount. I also think that if you currently are underinvested, or if you’ve been waiting on the sidelines in cash for the right opportunity to put money back to work, you’re about to get your long-awaited chance.
Despite the current Middle East/oil spike jitters, the fundamentals in the U.S. and global economies are improving, and that means we are likely to see more upside once the latest political strife subsides.
If you want to prepare yourself for the next big buying opportunity, then I invite you to check out my Successful Investing advisory service today.