08/04/2010
There’s been a big change in the tenor of the financial markets over the past couple of months. We witnessed a lot of fearful selling in stocks in June, but by the end of July, those fears had morphed into some rather bodacious buying. The turning away from bearish sentiment in favor of bullish feelings has caused a dramatic alteration in the charts of our “Four Horsemen” -- the S&P 500, the FTSE/Xinhua China 25, 30-Year Treasury Bond Yields and the U.S. Dollar Index. Let’s look at these sectors in a little more detail to see just how far the pendulum has swung in each.
As of this morning, the S&P 500 was up less than 1% for the year. At its high point in 2010, the index was up 8% for the year, and at its lowest point, it also was down about 8%. What this means is that we are right in the middle of a trading range at about 1,125.
Technically, we are back above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages -- clearly a positive sign going forward. Still, there are a lot of fears over growth prospects for the U.S. and global economies, and there’s still a whole lot of angst over what’s going to happen with tax policy in 2011. My best advice when it comes to equities is to start dipping your toes in the water, but do it judiciously, and do it with a stop-loss order on every long position you take.
As for China, the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI) now finally has reversed course after a horrendous start to 2010. The chart below clearly shows just what a beating this market segment took at the beginning of the year. Now, however, FXI has fought its way back above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, a clear signal that international investors have regained their collective appetite for stocks in this fast-moving emerging market nation.
On the bond front, yields finally started to edge higher in July. As you can see by the chart here of the 30-Year Treasury Bond Yield, there was literally a collapse that took place in this metric from April through June. Yields have since come off of their lows, but bond yields remain well below their short- and long-term moving averages. Will bond prices continue to climb (forcing yields lower), or will there be a new bond sell-off that sends yields back up to technical support? I suspect the answer will unfold clearly in the weeks ahead.
The value of the U.S. dollar vs. rival foreign currencies has come nearly full circle. After a resounding move higher from January through early June, the greenback has come way off of its highs. It’s clear to me that the U.S. policymakers want a weaker dollar, as that is generally good for multinational companies and for propping up asset prices. Yet the market hasn’t cooperated with that notion very well over the past couple of months. The greenback now is close to breaching its long-term technical support at the 200-day moving average, and that’s not good for fans of the dollar.
I’ve said this in the past, but if you pay close attention to the charts of the “four horsemen,” you can keep yourself abreast of the most relevant issues facing your money. Of course, I will be here every week to help you interpret the winds of change, and make no mistake about it; in 2010, those winds have blown frequently and furiously.