07/07/2010
Gold has been on a decided uptrend since mid-April, in direct opposition to the trend in the equity markets. It makes sense, as gold usually is seen as a safe haven against tumult in equities. Gold also is seen as a good investment when the value of the U.S. dollar declines, although the latest run higher in gold occurred despite a stronger dollar.
The most recent trend in the yellow metal -- the trend taking place over the last week -- has been decidedly lower. As you can see by the chart here of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), an ETF pegged to the spot price of gold bullion, gold recently fell below its short-term, 50-day moving average.
This pullback in gold actually has put GLD on my short-term buying radar, as I am bullish on gold due to what I see as continued weakness in equities. I actually would like to see gold fall below its long-term, 200-day moving average, as that would shake out many of the weak holders. It also would represent a nice, low-risk buying opportunity in a commodity that investors have been smiling on for some time.
Of course, we haven’t seen gold correct below the 200-day average in some time, so it might be a long wait before we see gold prices pull back to this degree. Still, the current drop in gold below the 50-day average definitely has my attention, as gold prices may just be “reloading” on their way to shiny new highs.