09/08/2010
Although I think we may be overdue for a nice bounce in the markets relatively soon, the technical picture in the market tells me that we still are mired in a rather persistent trading range. Let’s take a look at the chart below of the S&P 500 to see what I mean.
As you can see, stocks have been trading lately between about 1025 on the low end and 1130 on the high end since early July. There’s been a lot of action between these lines, but right now, we are in the middle of that range. We also are trading right in the middle of the short-term, 50-day moving average and the long-term, 200-day moving average.
Now, contrast the domestic markets with the emerging markets, and the story is a lot more bullish. Take a look at the chart below of the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM), an exchange-traded fund (ETF) pegged to the fortunes of the emerging markets of the world.
As you can see, there has been a lot of volatility in EEM since July, but this market segment now is firmly above both short- and long-term moving averages. That means the bulls definitely have become more inclined to move their capital into these frontier markets.
Finally, we have the chart below of long-term Treasury bond yields. As you can see, it’s been a veritable freefall for yields (i.e., spike in bond prices) since about April. That’s when the fear factor really kicked into high gear and sent bond prices soaring (and bond yields plummeting).
But like equity prices, we are starting to see a changing of the guard here with respect to bond prices. Yields actually have started to make their way higher, and yields now are well off of their September lows. Is this the start of a bursting bond bubble? Maybe not yet, but if bond prices continue to slide -- along with a concomitant rise in bond yields -- it could trigger a bond sell-off and a shift back into undervalued equities.