Equity markets have had a good time of it since last Wednesday, when central banks around the world pitched in to make cheaper dollars available to ailing Europe. And while the trend during the past week has been good for the bulls, the rally we’ve seen is anything but stable. In fact, the meeting of European leaders that’s taking place this week is causing a lot of anticipation among traders. If the talks fail to produce any meaningful short-term solution to Europe’s debt woes, the market could be in for a violent sell-off to finish out the year.
Already this year, many international market indices have fallen into official bear market territory. Although there are more problems plaguing the markets than just Europe, fear of a recession in the region certainly has taken a bit out of many markets. If we look at the chart here of the iShares Europe 350 (IEV), we see that the stocks in the index remain well below their long-term, 200-day moving average. Although the fund is well off of its October lows, the risk of retesting these lows remains high.
Chinese stocks also have been mired in a protracted downtrend in 2011; however, stocks in the iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI) have managed to come way off of their October lows. Still, this broad measure the Chinese equity market remains below its long-term trend line. A Chinese housing bubble, decreasing exports, slowing economic growth and persistently high inflation continue to hurt stocks tied to Asia’s biggest economy. And now with the threat of a major slowdown in Europe—one of China’s biggest export regions—stocks in the sector could be headed even lower.
Finally, we have the emerging market stocks. Thanks to the economic slowing in China and Europe, this sector has been hit very hard in 2011. The chart below shows that the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) remains well below its 200-day average. Despite EEM gaining a bounce in the past week, the overriding trend in this segment is bearish.
I think the risk meter in this market right now is way too high for individual investors. If you are managing your serious money with an eye toward long-term growth, holding a significant portion of your capital in stocks right now is, in my opinion, flirting with disaster.
If you’d like to find out when that risk level finally comes down enough for investors to re-allocate to stocks, then you need to check out my Successful Investing advisory service today.