04/28/2010
As the market was hit with a sizeable amount of selling in Tuesday’s trade, courtesy of those aforementioned debt downgrades and the grilling of Goldman Sachs executives by the Senate, I thought this would be a good time to take another look at the four horsemen of the market. I’ve mentioned these four indicators before as key to getting a solid handle on where stocks, bonds and currencies are headed, so let’s check each one out now.
The chart below of the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that mirrors the performance of the S&P 500 Index, shows that despite yesterday’s downturn, U.S. stocks still are firmly ensconced in an uptrend. Before we can call any kind of market turn, I think stocks must first retreat down to the 50-day moving average (blue line) -- and we’re still a ways away from that.
Treasury bond prices have spiked of late, and that means a concomitant decline in bond yields. The flight to quality in U.S. Treasury bonds as a result of the debt debacle in Europe has helped push bond prices here higher, and helped to send Treasury yields lower, which can be seen in the chart below of the 30-Year T-Bond Yield.
The value of the dollar vs. rival foreign currencies also is higher, as investors scurry away from the euro and other European currencies in favor of the relatively stable greenback. The chart below of the ProShares DB U.S. Dollar Bullish (UUP), an ETF that moves higher along with the value of the dollar, clearly shows the uptrend that’s been in place since December. The dollar now trades above both short- and long-term trend lines.
Finally, we have the chart below of the iShares FTSE/Xinhua 25 (FXI), an ETF tied to the performance of the largest 25 China-based stocks. As you can see, the index has come down sharply during the past several weeks. The volatile measure of the China stock market now trades below its short- and long-term moving averages. Clearly, this is a bearish sign for Chinese stocks, so if you are long this sector and currently have unrealized profits in stocks or funds pegged to China, now may be a good time to take your gains off the table.
As you can see, just a brief glance of these four horsemen can give you a great sense of how well the domestic and international stock markets are performing, as well as how bonds and currencies are faring. Once again, the four horsemen prove an invaluable tool when assessing markets, so if you still haven’t made this a staple of your weekly market monitoring, I highly recommend you begin doing so immediately.