Market Forecast
03/10/2010
The date was March 9, 2009, and the S&P 500 Index was trading at its lowest level since the mid-1990s. The equity market was in literal freefall, and nearly everyone on both Wall Street and Main Street… …
03/03/2010
Many of you know that I host a weekly radio show, Doug Fabian’s Wealth Strategies, in Los Angeles every Saturday morning at 10 a.m. PST. But for those of you that aren’t in the Southern California… …
02/24/2010
Back home in the U.S.A., we have a much different technical picture. After sinking below its 50-day moving average, the S&P 500 Index now has fought its way back to the 50-day average. But before… …
02/24/2010
In technical analysis parlance, a black cross (sometimes known as a death cross) occurs when an index’s falling 50-day moving average meets its rising 200-day moving average. And as the ominous… …
02/17/2010
Last week, we witnessed the U.S. equity markets make a solid push higher, and we now are trading well above the February lows. In fact, we now are trading right below the key, 50-day moving average (blue… …
02/09/2010
To say that the bears have been firmly in control of the equity markets during the past several weeks would be stating the obvious. However, the sharp decline we’ve witnessed in the broad market… …
02/03/2010
Have the last couple of weeks of trading been the start of a typical correction, or is it just a short-term pullback? Or, is what we’re seeing the start of the big, bad sell-off everyone fears?… …
01/27/2010
It was the first really rough week in over 10 months. Yes, I’m talking about the nearly across-the-board selling we witnessed in stocks last week -- a sell-off that slammed the major market indices… …
01/20/2010
The market was up big on Tuesday, and down big on Wednesday. This kind of back-and-forth in equities is, I suspect, a harbinger of things to come over the next quarter. I think that we have to face the… …
01/13/2010
On Saturday, Jan. 9, I held my first investor teleconference of the year. This call was tremendously successful, and I want to thank all of you who called in and joined the fun. Now, if you didn’t… …
01/13/2010
In last week’s Alert, we introduced the concept of “trade location,” a term that simply refers to establishing a good entry point for any equity position you enter. Well, Tuesday’s… …
01/06/2010
Join me this Saturday, Jan. 9, 12:00 pm (noon) Pacific, for my first investor teleconference of the year. I will be discussing the investment landscape for 2010, and I’ll be reviewing several of… …
12/30/2009
I want to start this final Alert of the year with a few thoughts on the market of 2009, as well as a few thoughts on the market as we head into a new decade. If we stop and think about where we are at… …
12/23/2009
Although we've seen some push and shove during the last several weeks in stocks, looking at this market through a 52-week lens really tells the story of a bull on the loose since early March.
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12/16/2009
Come on up for the rising Come on up, lay your hands in mine… --Bruce Springsteen, “The Rising” I’ve been writing a lot lately about the prospect of rising interest rates (i.e.,… …
12/16/2009
We’ve been dancing around the 1,100 mark on the S&P 500 for about the past five weeks, but every time we get a little too far above this level, stocks seem to bleed back toward the 1,100 support… …
12/02/2009
Let’s start off this week’s Alert with a quick glance at a chart of the S&P 500 Index for the past two months. As you can see, we’ve basically been mired in a trading range between… …
11/25/2009
This time of year, we normally can count on the market being in full-rally mode. There is a term that I use in my book "Maverick Investing" to describe this time of year. I call it the growth… …
11/18/2009
The key metric in the market since last week has been the breaching of the psychologically and technically significant 1,100 mark on the S&P 500 Index. The index managed to punch a hole in this ceiling… …
11/11/2009
This market once again has proven that it's in full bull mode, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting yet another 52-week high. To say that this has been an impressive run higher since we… …
11/04/2009
Over the past several months, I have been sharing my views on how to manage your portfolio during these unprecedented economic times via a teleconference series entitled:… …
11/04/2009
Today's Federal Reserve decision to leave interest rates unchanged, at essentially zero, came as little surprise to Wall Street. But as has become the norm on Fed decision days, the reading of the tea… …
10/28/2009
One clear sign that a market has reached the top is a rotation of market leadership. When sectors that have led the market higher begin to falter, and when laggard sectors begin to show signs of life,… …
10/28/2009
Over the past two weeks, there's been a decided attitude adjustment in the equity markets. Sellers have stepped in and taken their profits off of the table, and the sell-off now has pushed the S&P… …
10/21/2009
God didn't make little green apples And it don't rain in Indianapolis in the summertime --Roger Miller, "Little Green Apples" The chorus from the classic country ditty "Little Green Apples"… …
10/14/2009
Stocks are surging this morning on news of better-than-expected earnings from bellwethers Intel and JP Morgan. The S&P 500 Index now is above its Sept. 23 high of 1080. So, does this new high represent… …
10/08/2009
The big buzz in the market this week was the rumored demise of the U.S. dollar. The dollar dipped sharply in Tuesday's trade on chatter that oil prices may be pegged to the euro rather than the greenback… …
09/30/2009
I’m no expert on movies, but I do consider myself pretty knowledgeable when it comes to the economy and the financial markets. Well, this Friday, the world of film and financial markets will intersect… …
09/30/2009
I’ve received a number of emails from Alert readers, and from my investment advisory services subscribers, concerning the recommendations that we be patient and pick our spots carefully at this… …
09/23/2009
In my line of work, I often get emails that are very gratifying. This month, I thought I'd share one such email with you that you also can be a part of. Here's the text straight from my inbox.
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09/23/2009
On Tuesday, Sept. 15, we conducted the second installment of our teleconference on "The Obama Impact on Your Money." Judging by the slew of emails I received, the event was a resounding success… …
09/23/2009
Regular readers of the Alert know that I often present charts of key market indicators such as the S&P 500 Index, oil, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) of leading market segments such as China… …
09/16/2009
This market is just downright crazy. It seems like no matter what happens in the economy, with earnings, on the political front or on the world stage, stocks still act like the Energizer Bunny -- they… …
08/05/2009
Today's market pullback could be the start of a wane in the recent bear market rally. I say could be, because it's way too early to tell if the steam has run out on Wall Street's summer bash. I think… …
07/29/2009
Part of my duties each day is to keep up on all the financial news chatter. Yesterday, I was struck with the number of financial pundits who claim that the recession is now over, and that we've already… …
07/15/2009
It's summertime and the living is easy Fish are jumping and the cotton is high Your daddy's rich and your mama's good-looking Hush, little baby don't you cry --Sam Cooke, "Summertime" I live… …
07/08/2009
Back in March, at the very beginning of what became a huge run higher for stocks, I was skeptical that the market could mount a sustainable rally. As the months went by, I remained skeptical; however,… …
04/15/2009
I'm hearing a whole lot of chatter amongst the financial pundit class about this current rally being the start of a booming new bull market. And while I agree that the nearly 25% climb by the S&P… …
04/08/2009
This week started out with a pause in the recent market rally. However, today the play button on the rally seems to have been pushed once again. I think Monday's pullback makes sense, especially in the… …
03/18/2009
Looking back over the landscape of the markets, the S&P 500 Index hit an intra-day low of 666 on March 6, 2009. Since that point, the market has rallied more than 16% through yesterday's close. It… …
01/28/2009
The big news in the markets this week is the very strong rally, which was prompted by two key factors. The first is the expected Congressional approval of an $816 billion economic stimulus plan. Yes,… …
01/21/2009
As the economy slows, one reasonably safe sector that you may want to consider is municipal "muni" bonds. Muni bonds are issued by cities, states and other local governments to raise money for… …
01/14/2009
Stocks took another big tumble in Wednesday's trading, and by now I think most of us are suffering from what best could be described as bear market fatigue. I know there were a lot of financial pundits… …
01/14/2009
As the economy slows, one reasonably safe sector that you may want to consider is municipal "muni" bonds. Muni bonds are issued by cities, states and other local governments to raise money for… …
12/03/2008
The bear market of 2008 is still with us, and despite the recent spat of bullish days for stocks, we are still way below both the short- and long-term trends in the overall market. As you can see from… …
11/12/2008
Now that the uncertainty has disappeared as to who will move into the White House, the uncertainty as to how President-elect Obama will address the problems facing this nation has just begun.
That uncertainty… …
11/05/2008
The results are in, and now we all know that Sen. Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States. Now that the uncertainty has disappeared as to who will move into the White House, the uncertainty… …
10/29/2008
The Federal Reserve just cut its target for the federal funds rate, the interest banks charge on overnight loans, by 50 basis points. The fed funds rate now sits at 1%, its lowest level since 2004. Today's… …
10/29/2008
In less than a week America will elect a new president, and as we draw closer to Nov. 4, Sen. Barack Obama has opened a substantial lead in most of the polls. I still think the race will be very, very… …
10/22/2008
Last week, we witnessed a bit of a comeback in stocks, as the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite all managed to log their first winning week in many months. Yet in a testament to the tremendous volatility… …
10/22/2008
In less than two weeks America will elect a new president, and as we draw closer to Nov. 4, Sen. Barack Obama has opened a substantial lead in most of the polls. I still think the race will be very, very… …
10/15/2008
The market madness during the past week has been truly stunning. The tumultuous volatility in equities has been unprecedented, and even the most ardent adjectival devices fail to capture the essence of… …
10/15/2008
The race for the White House is nearing the finish line, and tonight we’ll get a chance to see the final tête-à-tête between Democratic Party presidential nominee Barack Obama… …
10/08/2008
Today's stock market beast is not the same animal it was a decade ago. In fact, the pace of change has been relentless in recent years, and even the most conscientious individual investor has had a tough… …
10/01/2008
I can't remember a time in my life when financial markets and a presidential election overlapped so acutely. With the market plummeting and a bailout of our banking system on the way, you have every reason… …
10/01/2008
Today's stock market beast is not the same animal it was a decade ago. In fact, the pace of change has been relentless in recent years, and even the most conscientious individual investor has had a tough… …
09/24/2008
I can’t remember a time in my life when financial markets and a presidential election overlapped so acutely. With the market plummeting and a bailout of our banking system on the way, you have every… …
09/24/2008
Today’s stock market beast is not the same animal it was a decade ago. In fact, the pace of change has been relentless in recent years, and even the most conscientious individual investor has had… …
09/17/2008
Today's stock market beast is not the same animal it was a decade ago. In fact, the pace of change has been relentless in recent years, and even the most conscientious individual investor has had a tough… …
09/17/2008
The presidential election polls are gyrating like the stock market these days. Sen. Obama had an eight-point lead after the Democratic Convention, only to see it slip away after Sen. McCain's surprise… …
09/10/2008
Today's stock market beast is not the same animal it was a decade ago. In fact, the pace of change has been relentless in recent years, and even the most conscientious individual investor has had a tough… …
09/10/2008
The presidential election polls are gyrating like the stock market these days. Sen. Obama had an eight-point lead after the Democratic Convention, only to see it slip away after Sen. McCain's surprise… …
09/03/2008
Join Fairway Capital President Kevin Yurkus and me on Thursday, Sept. 18, 2008 from 2:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. at the Ritz-Carlton, Phoenix hotel for the most important financial seminar of the year. The… …
08/20/2008
The greenback is back! That's right, the value of the U.S. dollar versus rival foreign currencies has surged during the past several weeks, and that surge has caused quite the dust up in the international… …
07/09/2008
I was interviewed yesterday by my Los Angeles radio affiliate regarding my views on the economy and the stock market. In the interview, I explained that stocks are a leading indicator for the overall… …
06/18/2008
"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us -- be prepared." —Bob Janjuah, Royal Bank of Scotland credit strategist When one of the world's premiere banking institutions, The Royal Bank… …
04/23/2008
This morning, the newspaper Investor's Business Daily interviewed me for an upcoming article about how a lot of companies are likely to start cutting their dividends. In my opinion, we are at the beginning… …
04/17/2008
We've seen it time and time again this year. The it is the phenomenon of a bear market rally. That's what happened Wednesday, April 16, with the major averages all surging more than 2% in the trading… …
04/02/2008
On Tuesday, April 1, we saw a huge jump in stocks that was nearly across the board. The major averages all were up more than 3% on the day, and that brought the bullish commentators out in droves. I heard… …
03/19/2008
By now I suspect that most of you are intimately acquainted with the bailout of Bear Stearns (BSC) by the Federal Reserve and rival bank JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM). That's why I am not going to rehash… …
03/12/2008
"How odd it is that anyone should not see that all observation must be for or against some view if it is to be of any service!" —Charles Darwin One of the greatest scientists of all time,… …
02/27/2008
There is no denying that stocks are back on the move, and during the past several days the equity markets have rallied in the face of some really bad news. What kind of bad news? Well, the latest Producer… …
02/13/2008
If you've been an Alert reader for more than just a couple of weeks, you know that I've been saying we are in a bear market. In fact, ever since the proverbial line in the sand at about 1410 on… …
02/06/2008
It seems like just last week we had freed ourselves from the bear’s stranglehold. Well, actually, it was just last week that we witnessed one of the best rallies in years. We had an aggressive Fed… …
01/30/2008
Everybody's worried about the economy right now, especially the Federal Reserve. We saw the central bank's solution to things today, and so far the market has responded positively to the 50-basis-point… …
12/05/2007
"I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." —Sir Isaac Newton When it comes to figuring it out the direction of stocks, we can all learn a lot from… …
12/05/2007
Lately, I've heard the following phrase bandied about the financial press: "Breaking the buck." Let me tell you that this disturbing saying is one we all need to be concerned about. In fact,… …
11/28/2007
During the past few weeks the technical damage to stock prices has been severe. We broke below the August lows in the Dow Jones Industrials and in the Russell 2000, but we managed to bounce off of those… …
11/21/2007
First off, let me just say that I have many great memories of past Thanksgiving celebrations. This is almost a sacred day of family gathering and feasting for me and my loved ones. I am looking forward… …
10/24/2007
It was an ugly day on Wall Street, as the major market averages pulled back early Wednesday after Merrill Lynch (MER) announced that severe credit-related losses would smack its bottom line. In addition… …
08/22/2007
The way I am approaching this market, you'd think I was born and raised in Missouri. That's because the "Show-Me" state's famous motto of skepticism is how I think any smart investor should… …
08/15/2007
Over the past few stunning weeks of market volatility, many people have called my radio show, e-mailed me and even stopped me on the street to ask me what direction I think this market is headed. People… …
08/15/2007
Last week I ran a great piece by mortgage and real estate expert Josh Lewis on just what is happening now in the mortgage market, and how that relates to you. I got so much positive feedback on this piece… …
08/08/2007
By Josh Lewis Anyone who watches the nightly news or reads the newspaper is well aware that the "subprime mess" now has become the "mortgage market meltdown." What most people don't… …
08/01/2007
As much as people wish it wasn't so, we have to acknowledge that we now have entered a bear market in real estate. Why are we in a bear market in real estate? Well, foreclosures will reach an all-time… …
07/25/2007
Soaring then diving, jumping then dipping. That's about the best way to describe this market over the past week or so. Just last Thursday the Dow eclipsed the 14,000 mark, setting yet another record high… …
07/18/2007
There's simply no denying it. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 have been on a roll lately. Well, at least they were on a roll before today's action. On Tuesday, the Industrial Average… …
05/03/2007
On the ETF Trader news front this week, I want to introduce you to a new country-specific fund that just began trading. Its name is the Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX). This fund just began trading this… …
03/21/2007
The market meandered within a tight trading range this morning, but after the Fed offered hints that the economy seems likely "to continue to expand at a moderate pace," stocks went right through… …
02/21/2007
To say that the current market is overbought would be the height of understatement. The major averages keep making new multi-year highs. As a result, the indexes keep getting further and further away… …
01/10/2007
It didn't take long for 2007 to kick into high gear and nowhere was this more evident than the hefty sell-off in the energy sector. Oil prices got slammed to start 2007 and caused an oil slick that sent… …
11/15/2006
Since the lifting of last Tuesday's election uncertainty, the major market indices have continued their upward march. The Dow still is treading on the path which has led it to new all-time highs, while… …
09/14/2006
We warned you last week about the historically tough time for equities during the month of September. Well, so far, that trend hasn't held true during 2006. Stocks have seen a pretty solid move to the… …
08/31/2006
An uneventful week for the major markets has the indices sitting about right where they were when I wrote to you last week. Enticed by a last chance to enjoy the summer, traders and investors have brought… …
08/24/2006
Last week's rally turned out to be a short sprint that completely lacked any endurance. The sporadic market movements are just more of the same activity that we have seen since mid-May, reflecting completely… …
08/10/2006
Yesterday's decision by the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates for the first time in more than two years was supposed to be greeted with a big celebration on Wall Street. Initially, stocks did… …
07/20/2006
It's been a wild week in the financial markets since last Wednesday's Alert. We witnessed renewed violence in the Middle East that sent stocks reeling; bringing a wave of fear to Wall Street that knocked… …
07/05/2006
One of the trends in this market that is definitely not up for debate is the downtrend in large-cap technology stocks as measured by the Nasdaq 100 Index. One look at the chart below and you can see that… …
06/07/2006
Don't worry; I am not going to bore you with the details of the traditional children's story. Rather, I have my own version the tale. First we have Goldilocks, who in our story is the economy. Like the… …
05/31/2006
Yesterday's huge drop in stocks -- the Dow and S&P 500 both sank over 1.5%, while the Nasdaq plunged over 2% -- reminded us all that the prospect of a correction, and very possibly the start of a… …
05/24/2006
I'm back home now after last week's trek to Sin City for the Las Vegas Money Show. While I was there, I had the opportunity to give a seminar with the timely title: Worry no more about a down stock market… …
05/10/2006
OK, we all know that stocks are hitting new multi-year highs every day. Commodities prices are soaring, energy stocks are vaulting higher along with the price of crude oil, and international stocks continue… …
04/12/2006
The markets have been dominated by energy concerns of late, and with the price of a barrel of crude oil ascending toward the $70 mark, it's easy to see why. Potential supply disruptions and an impending… …
02/08/2006
On Tuesday home building bellwether Toll Brothers (TOL) announced weaker-than-expected first quarter orders, while also telling The Street that it expected lower new home deliveries for the rest of 2006… …
02/01/2006
Yesterday the Federal Reserve raised interest rates another quarter percentage point, pushing borrowing costs to their highest point in five years. More importantly, the central bank also hinted that… …
01/25/2006
Last week's wild ride in the stock market proved the importance of a strong sell discipline. Last Wednesday's tumble in Japan and the spillover effect we witnessed here in our own markets had us selling… …
01/25/2006
The news from Ford is just the latest reminder that there are ebbs and flows for economies, even ours, and marketplace behemoths don't rule forever as the mighty can and do fall. Dynasties eventually… …
01/18/2006
Strong selling in the Nikkei prompted an early close of that market in early Wednesday trading and a spillover has occurred on Wall Street. I have advised my Successful Investing subscribers to take defensive… …
01/11/2006
Big news hit the major stock indices this week as the Dow Jones Industrial Average not only reached, but held onto, 11,000. Tuesday's trading found the markets digesting broad-based consolidation, but… …
01/04/2006
What a difference a trading day makes! Last Friday’s trading session closed the books on Wall Street for 2005 and it was pretty unexciting. The S&P 500 Index eked out a 3% gain for the year… …
12/28/2005
An inversion in the yield curve sent the markets south in yesterday’s post-holiday trading session. The trading started out fairly positive in weak volume as investors seemed pleased with the prospect… …
12/21/2005
The market is not delivering the big rally we have all come to hope for and expect as investors get into the buying mood at this time of year, even on Wall Street. Homebuilders expressed some sour sentiment… …
12/14/2005
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates, yet again, yesterday. The market responded by adding a nice 56 points, enough to put the end of the year rally back on track. The best news to come out of the… …
12/07/2005
The end of the year upswing seems to be showing signs of resistance. The indexes are looking skyward, to be sure, but the closing numbers don’t seem to be reflecting the sentiments of the daily… …
11/30/2005
Huge increases in the manufacturing sector, new home sales and consumer confidence are responsible for creating a buoyant backdrop for the financial markets that may well provide the much-needed follow… …
11/23/2005
Solid gains in the equity markets have pushed the Dow Jones Industrial average into the black for the first time since March of this year. The S&P's gains have pushed that index to its highs for the… …
11/16/2005
The market has made impressive gains over the last couple of weeks, but the upward momentum seems to be losing steam as investors weigh inflation and earnings prospects. Fed chairman nominee Ben Bernanke's… …
01/19/2005
Year to date, investors in individual stocks have been punished for their optimism. Small caps are down 5% just since the first of the year--a mere 19 days ago. The Nasdaq is following closely behind,… …