Market Forecast
02/01/2012
The first month of 2012 is in the books, and it was a very good one for stocks. The S&P 500 Index surged 4.4% during the month, while the Dow jumped 3.4%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite also saw… …
01/25/2012
Today, we received word from the Federal Reserve that it’s going to be easy money at least until the end of 2014. The Fed flat-out stated that it isn’t likely to raise interest rates for about… …
01/18/2012
Stocks are off to a solid start in 2012. So far this year, the S&P 500 Index is up about 2%. Of course, a move higher in stocks at the beginning of the year is a common phenomenon. In fact,… …
01/11/2012
After a bullish inaugural day of 2012 trading, the market has been essentially flat. So far this year, stocks in the S&P 500 Index are up about 1% on relatively light trading volume. One reason… …
01/04/2012
<br> Tuesday was the inaugural day of 2012 trading, and we witnessed a whole lot of bullish action. In fact, I think that the New Year’s Eve party that began last Saturday night in… …
12/28/2011
The year is nearly over, but the volatility we’ve come to live with in 2011 is by no means over yet. On Wednesday, stocks sold off sharply as traders opted to bank the gains they captured… …
12/21/2011
In a year where volatility has ruled the roost, I guess it should come as no surprise that stocks continue to soar and dive into the final weeks of the year. We saw this characteristic 2011… …
12/14/2011
It’s ugly out there, and it has been for the past week. Stocks around the globe are plunging, as the situation in Europe keeps putting pressure on worldwide equity prices. Fear and anxiety… …
12/07/2011
Even though the market has climbed in the past few days, keep in mind that the macro-economic problems hindering equities in recent months have yet to be solved. Of course, when we see the markets jump… …
12/07/2011
Equity markets have had a good time of it since last Wednesday, when central banks around the world pitched in to make cheaper dollars available to ailing Europe. And while the trend during the past week… …
11/30/2011
In the days leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday, we saw markets make a decided turn south. The S&P 500 Index broke below its 50-day moving average, and the broad measure of the domestic… …
11/22/2011
If there still were any doubts that the trend in the market now has turned decidedly negative, then Monday’s big sell-off effectively should have erased those misgivings. The huge drop in… …
11/16/2011
This week is the final installment in our Bear Market Survival Guide series. I think it’s important for investors to keep in mind that even if we don’t see stocks morph into… …
11/09/2011
Today’s action in stocks that caused the market to plunge more than 3.5% across the board midway through the trading session highlights the need for our next installment in our Bear Market… …
11/02/2011
The equity markets continue their volatile trading, as one day we bask in the bullish glory of a near 11% October surprise and the next day the market drops nearly 3% on fears that a Greek politician… …
10/26/2011
<br> Stocks continue to their volatile trading, as the world waits for a decision from European leaders on the details of a proposed bailout of the region’s ailing financial system… …
10/19/2011
The big surge in stocks so far in October has many investors hoping that this rally is the start of something really big. A near-12% surge off of the September lows in less than three weeks, combined… …
10/12/2011
Stocks have been on a tear for the past eight trading sessions, and the broad-based buying has sent the S&P 500 Index nearly 10% higher over that time. It’s a big change from just more… …
10/05/2011
On Tuesday, the bear stuck his nose out of the S&P 500 den ever so briefly. But apparently, he didn’t like the way Wall Street smelled. Well, at least he didn’t want to hang around… …
09/28/2011
Since the market began its sharp turn south in August, I’ve been telling you that the risks of a further meltdown in stocks are extremely high. Anemic U.S. economic growth, perniciously… …
09/21/2011
After a ton of anticipation over what type of card the Federal Reserve had up its sleeve, the markets got the answer about 2:20 p.m. Eastern today. As many expected, the central bank approved the… …
09/14/2011
The blaring sound of volatile trading continues to ring throughout trading floors around the globe, as investors try to figure out if this market is worth buying, or if they should run for the… …
09/07/2011
Has the market bottomed? Are we headed for another bear? What’s next for stocks? These are the burning questions dominating the volatile equity landscape right now, and the constant barrage… …
08/31/2011
The equity markets are in rally mode, and that’s despite the still-ugly economic and sentiment data that keeps pouring in. Of course, things aren’t completely bad on that front, as… …
08/24/2011
Stocks got pounded to the tune of 419 Dow points last Thursday, and the heavy selling came after more news out of Europe that the region’s financial crises could infect banks all over… …
08/17/2011
There’s a great movie that came out in the late 1960s called Cool Hand Luke. It’s basically a study of a non-conformist, anti-hero who resists authority and the establishment. The lead role… …
08/10/2011
The market’s now in a bona fide correction, with the S&P 500 Index – and virtually every other equity index -- plunging below the 200-day moving average. In fact, as of this morning,… …
08/03/2011
The debt-ceiling agreement is in place, the government will not default on its obligations and the market is moving higher. Well, two out of three ain’t bad. Sure, there’s no more uncertainty… …
07/27/2011
In last week’s issue, I told you that the market appeared to be reacting well to the purported deal to raise the nation’s debt ceiling. In fact, stocks traded nicely to the upside last… …
07/20/2011
The action in the equity and bond markets so far in 2011 can be characterized by what I call a sort of “nervous uncertainty.” Let’s face it, we’ve had a lot of cause for worry,… …
07/12/2011
On Thursday, July 7, we held our latest teleseminar, titled Mid-Year Review and Market Outlook. In this seminar, we talked about how investors should position their portfolios for what promises to be… …
07/06/2011
One of the catalysts for last week’s buying spree was the news out of Greece that the country’s Parliament voted to back a package of deep spending cuts. That’s going to open the door… …
06/29/2011
Join me on Thursday, July 7, at 1:00 p.m. PST (4:00 p.m. EST), for a FREE discussion of the rapidly changing financial markets. In this teleseminar, titled Mid-Year Review and Market Outlook, I will be… …
06/22/2011
The amount of hyperbole and demagoguery surrounding the issue of the U.S. dollar’s pending demise has reached a fever pitch. Particularly on the Internet, where marketing campaigns prey on the high… …
06/15/2011
The market woke up this morning to news of violence in the streets of Greece, as protestors objected to that nation’s austerity measures. The fiscally beleaguered country has become of a symbol… …
06/07/2011
The downtrend in the equity market continues, and we’re currently working on six straight weeks of declines in most of the major indices. Stocks in the S&P 500 Index are down nearly 5.8% since… …
06/01/2011
Last week, we saw stocks stabilize a bit after several weeks of declines. The market took a nice step forward in Tuesday’s trading, with the Dow logging a strong triple-digit percentage gain… …
05/11/2011
There’s been a big correction in commodities since the beginning of May. The selling in the space was led by silver, as the astounding run up in the precious metal culminated in a pushing-up against… …
05/11/2011
I woke up this morning in one of my favorite cities to revel in: the one and only Las Vegas, Nevada. I’m here this week for the annual Las Vegas MoneyShow, a meeting of the minds between individual… …
05/04/2011
China is the world’s second largest economy behind only the United States. Japan is the third largest economy, and for many years now, China’s equity markets have easily outpaced Japanese… …
04/27/2011
This week marks the final Alert for April, and all month, we’ve been celebrating the anniversary of our flagship publication, Successful Investing. This April marks our 34th year of helping investors… …
04/27/2011
Today, we received word from the Federal Reserve that it plans to end its $600-billion Treasury bond-buying program in June, as originally planned. The Fed cited strength in the economy and the job market… …
04/20/2011
The market got off to a decidedly rocky start this week, as traders reacted to news that rating agency Standard & Poor’s cut its outlook on U.S. government debt to “negative” from… …
04/13/2011
From its March 16 low to its April 6 high, the S&P 500 Index surged more than 6%. That decided move higher was quite impressive, especially considering it took place in the wake of the Japan disaster,… …
04/07/2011
Are you ready to invest for success in 2011? On Tuesday, April 5, we held our second teleseminar of the year. We called this seminar, “Second Quarter Market Outlook and Opportunities.” During… …
04/06/2011
What do you say about a market that opened up this morning near its 52-week high, and that continues powering higher and higher in the face of surging oil prices, natural disasters, nuclear meltdowns… …
03/30/2011
Are you ready to invest for success in 2011? On Tuesday, April 5, at 1:00 p.m. Pacific Time (4:00 p.m. Eastern), we will be holding our second teleseminar of the year. We’re calling this seminar,… …
03/30/2011
Neither earthquakes, nor tsunamis, nor nuclear meltdowns, nor Middle East wars can stop this resilient market. In fact, stocks now have rebounded very nicely off of their March lows, and we’ve already… …
03/24/2011
The latest global market turmoil has prompted a flight-to-quality from the most volatile of global equity markets into long-term Treasury bonds. Bond prices have surged since mid-February, and there’s… …
03/16/2011
If you’re looking for a way to help the Japanese people in their time of need, then here are a few links that allow you to donate to the relief effort. AMERICAN RED CROSS: Donations to the American… …
03/09/2011
Over the past five months, we’ve witnessed a decidedly upward bias in the domestic equity markets. Part of the reason for the influx of money into domestic stocks -- and out of international stocks… …
03/02/2011
Tuesday’s decidedly downbeat market action saw stocks fall about 2% across the board. Along with last week’s broad decline, I think we can safely say that the character of this market has… …
02/23/2011
On Saturday, Feb. 26, I broadcast my final AM radio show. This tried-and-true method of communication was very good to me over the last 12 years. In fact, it’s hard to believe that I actually did… …
02/23/2011
Social upheaval in the Middle East has once again captured center stage. This time, it’s the crisis in Libya and, even as I write this, we are seeing signs that the troubled nation might be descending… …
02/16/2011
Hey, everyday’s a revolution Welcome to the future --Brad Paisley, “Welcome to the Future” Welcome to a new era of digital broadcasting! We are very excited to tell you about our upcoming… …
02/16/2011
Last week, we talked about the divergence in the market between the soaring S&P 500 Index and the falling iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI), China’s benchmark index. That divergence continues,… …
02/09/2011
A funny thing happened to the markets about mid-November of last year. Stocks in the then-red-hot Chinese market began to show signs of weakness. At the same time, stocks in the U.S. market began taking… …
02/02/2011
The equity markets remained on a decidedly bullish path in January. Despite one sizeable day of selling last week, courtesy of the political upheaval in Egypt, stocks enjoyed a very good start to what… …
01/26/2011
Dominating the political and market headlines today was the post-analysis of President Obama’s State of the Union address. The speech was long, and it did contain a lot of very broad strokes. But… …
01/19/2011
Stocks continue to push higher in 2011, and in just the 12 trading days that we’ve had so far this year, the S&P 500 Index has jumped more than 2%. Of course, that gain comes on top of the tremendous… …
01/12/2011
To infinity, and beyond! That’s where stocks seem like they’re headed lately. In fact, nearly every indicator of market sentiment is bullish right now. And while an overwhelmingly bullish… …
01/05/2011
Are you ready to invest for success in 2011? Everybody says they’re ready to make money in the market, but let me ask you this -- do you have a well-thought-out strategy in place to do just that?… …
01/05/2011
December definitely was a month to remember for the U.S. equity markets. Stocks finished up an ultra-volatile year on a high note, with monthly gains of about 6% in the major market averages. The big… …
12/22/2010
On Sunday, the CBS news show “60 Minutes” did a very interesting segment on the budget crisis facing so many state and local governments. What the segment essentially amounted to was truly… …
12/22/2010
About this time every year, the financial press is replete with predictions for what the market likely will do in the year ahead. This cavalcade of collective opinion was exemplified in last weekend’s… …
12/08/2010
The equity markets continue moving back and forth on their volatile 2010 ride, and recent trading has been no exception. In fact, the market started out robustly higher in Tuesday’s trading, but… …
11/17/2010
There’s a whole lot of change going on in the bond market. Since the midterm Congressional election, and since the Federal Reserve announced its plans to print our way out of the fiscal doldrums,… …
11/03/2010
The Federal Reserve took center stage in today’s market action, as everyone on Wall Street eagerly was anticipating the release of details of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) so-called… …
10/27/2010
On Saturday, Nov. 6, at 12 p.m. Pacific Time, I will be hosting the most important investor teleconference of the year. I’ve titled this presentation, “The Election’s Over --Now What… …
10/27/2010
The market basically has slowed down during the past week. Though there’s been some small degree of volatility in stocks since last Wednesday’s Alert, it certainly appears as though the markets… …
10/20/2010
On Tuesday, stocks got knocked for a loop after Wall Street woke up to the first interest rate hike in China since 2007. The People’s Bank of China, that nation’s central bank, only lifted… …
10/13/2010
On Saturday, Oct. 10, I did what was, in my opinion, one of the best radio shows that I have ever done. The title of the show was “The Big Picture.” The one-hour broadcast let us take a step… …
10/13/2010
Today’s action in stocks saw more of the same buying pressure that we’ve seen since the beginning of September. U.S. stocks have been up big of late and, since falling to its August lows,… …
10/06/2010
In last week’s radio show, we talked about the current conditions in the market, and how best to position your money to take advantage of the upcoming buy setups taking shape right now in stocks… …
10/06/2010
The nation now is less than four weeks away from the November midterm Congressional elections. After nearly two years of what essentially amounts to one-party rule, I think the American people are ready… …
10/06/2010
Peaks and valleys in the stock market are nothing new but, so far in 2010, the peaks and valleys that can be seen in a chart of the S&P 500 look like a relief map of the Himalayan Mountains. One glance… …
09/29/2010
One area of the market that’s starting to worry me quite a lot is financial stocks. To be certain, financials have been one of the most volatile sectors in the market this year. Right now, we are… …
09/22/2010
Last week’s show was handled by the Fabian young guns, my sons David and Michael. I want to congratulate them on a fantastic hour of broadcasting in my absence. If you didn’t get the chance… …
09/22/2010
In last week’s Alert, we told you about the golden canary in the coal mine when it comes to assessing the mood of this market. At the time, we noted that gold was hitting a new, all-time high, and… …
09/15/2010
The negative news on the economy is everywhere, but I have a newsflash for you. The world is NOT coming to an end. America will not slip back into a recession anytime soon, and a big Congressional victory… …
09/15/2010
The big buzz in the markets of late is the resurgence of gold prices. Gold just breached a new all-time high, and the incredible run higher in the price of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) in 2010 has made gold… …
09/08/2010
During the last couple of weeks, my research team and I have been keenly focused on ways to make our clients, and our readers, big money in the remainder of 2010 and right on into 2011. What I’m… …
09/08/2010
Although I think we may be overdue for a nice bounce in the markets relatively soon, the technical picture in the market tells me that we still are mired in a rather persistent trading range. Let’s… …
09/01/2010
No doubt you have been reading the negative news on the economy. How can you not, it’s everywhere! We just witnessed a slowdown in economic growth, and recently we saw second-quarter GDP revised… …
09/01/2010
Today’s news that China enjoyed better-than-expected gains in its manufacturing sector really pushed stocks in the emerging market segment higher. The state-affiliated China Federation of Logistics… …
09/01/2010
Throughout August, it was a case of equity bears succumbing to bond bulls. Well, the first day of trading in September basically reversed the game. It was the equity bulls who were back in charge, and… …
08/25/2010
On a recent episode of my radio show, I offered listeners a FREE special report titled, “The Global High-Yield Watch List.” Now, I am extending this offer to you, the Alert reader. If you’re… …
08/25/2010
Last week, I visited one of my favorite cities, San Francisco, to attend the annual MoneyShow. The mood of the show this year was quite a bit drabber than it has been in the past. I think that investors… …
08/18/2010
The common (non-medical) definition of the term schizophrenia is a state of things characterized by the coexistence of contradictory or incompatible elements. And while this definition isn’t precise,… …
08/11/2010
Last Saturday’s show was all about deflation and the fears over a general decline in the value of assets like equities and real estate. We also looked at some great dividend-paying ETFs tailored… …
08/11/2010
What do you get when you combine fears about a slowdown in Asia with an economic recovery that is “more modest” than anticipated? The answer is a big sell-off in equity markets around the… …
08/04/2010
In last Saturday’s radio show, my sons David and Michael did a great job filling in for me, so I just want to say thank you very much, gentlemen, you did me proud. The topic so adeptly covered by… …
08/04/2010
There’s been a big change in the tenor of the financial markets over the past couple of months. We witnessed a lot of fearful selling in stocks in June, but by the end of July, those fears had morphed… …
07/28/2010
It’s been a very tough slog for Chinese stocks so far in 2010. The country’s stock market is one of the worst performers of the year, and the heavy selling that took place from early April… …
07/28/2010
As investors, one of the most difficult things to do is to keep an open mind. Rather than let your feelings interfere with reality, you should avoid trying to have too strong an opinion on where the market… …
07/21/2010
On Saturday, July 10, we held our latest teleseminar covering the rapidly changing 2010 financial markets. The teleseminar, titled “Mid-Year Review and Market Outlook,” dealt with how you… …
07/21/2010
When I was a kid, there was a popular song titled, “30 Days in the Hole,” by the rock band Humble Pie. Well, when looking at this market, I got to thinking about that song. That’s because… …
07/14/2010
Last Saturday, we held a FREE teleseminar covering the rapidly changing 2010 financial markets. The teleseminar, titled “Mid-Year Review and Market Outlook,” dealt with how you should position… …
07/14/2010
We told you last week about the “black cross,” and the danger that this technical signal poses for stocks going forward. Recall that a black cross occurs when the 50-day moving average (blue… …
07/07/2010
Gold has been on a decided uptrend since mid-April, in direct opposition to the trend in the equity markets. It makes sense, as gold usually is seen as a safe haven against tumult in equities. Gold also… …
07/07/2010
The overwhelming bias in both the domestic and international equity markets right now is to the downside. Sure, there have been a few nice up days over the past three weeks, but those short spurts of… …
06/30/2010
Join me Saturday, July 10, at 12:00 p.m. (noon) Pacific Standard Time, for a FREE discussion of the rapidly changing 2010 financial markets. In this teleseminar, “Mid-Year Review and Market Outlook,”… …
06/30/2010
Tuesday’s big equity sell-off has a lot of market observers very worried about the future of stocks. I’ve heard a lot of chatter in the financial media about the “head-and-shoulders… …
06/23/2010
Equities currently are in what I call “digestion mode.” After the big May sell-off, stocks have made a valiant comeback in June. That comeback now seems to have stalled, and one big reason… …
06/16/2010
If you missed last Saturday’s radio show, you missed a really great discussion on multiple subjects. Among the topics discussed were: • Why investors are choosing the United… …
06/16/2010
You know that famous song by The Who, “Won’t Get Fooled Again”? That’s the kind of attitude I recommend when approaching this market. Simply put, there still are many reasons to… …
06/09/2010
If you missed last Saturday’s radio show, you missed a whole lot of great information. Among the topics discussed were: • The 10 reasons why risk is so high in the market… …
06/09/2010
The extreme flux continues in stocks, with traders flip-flopping on sentiment faster than a short-order cook flips hamburgers. Yet if we look at both domestic and international equity benchmarks, we realize… …
06/02/2010
If there were any doubt that the bear has reared his vicious head in international markets, then those doubts should be erased when we check out the iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA). This exchange-traded… …
06/02/2010
Volatility and wild market swings have become commonplace during the past several weeks. But if we take a look at the markets for the entire month of May, the picture looks mighty gray. In what best can… …
05/26/2010
To give you a bit more perspective on the Fabian Plan and just how effective it’s been throughout the years, I wanted to show you something we call “Great Moments in Fabian History.”… …
05/26/2010
Shakespeare’s Hamlet may have thought that “the play’s the thing,” but last week’s market action has me thinking that “The Plan’s the thing.” The Plan I… …
05/19/2010
Last week, we conducted our latest teleconference, titled “Sound Fixed-Income Strategies in an Uncertain World.” In this seminar, I outlined the conservative fixed-income strategies that I… …
05/19/2010
The belch from the entity I’m calling “Mr. Volatility” can be heard on Wall Street in a big way. The markets actually finished in positive territory last week, but the wild buying last… …
05/12/2010
Join me on Saturday, May 15, 12:00 p.m. (noon) Pacific Standard Time, for a FREE discussion of the rapidly changing financial markets in 2010. In this teleconference, “Sound Fixed-Income Strategies… …
05/12/2010
As I write today’s Alert, I’ve just come from giving a seminar at the Las Vegas Money Show. The buzz at this year’s show is all about the market’s recent machinations, including… …
05/05/2010
In the midst of the current equity sell-off, we’ve seen a big-time flight to safety in U.S. Treasury bonds. The chart below of the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond fund (TLT) clearly illustrates… …
04/28/2010
As the market was hit with a sizeable amount of selling in Tuesday’s trade, courtesy of those aforementioned debt downgrades and the grilling of Goldman Sachs executives by the Senate, I thought… …
04/21/2010
On Friday, we received news that Wall Street icon Goldman Sachs had come under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for allegedly misleading its customers by withholding “vital… …
04/14/2010
The Dow now trades above 11,000, and the S&P 500 just breached the psychologically significant 1,200 mark. As this bull market passes new milestones, there are two types of investors left wondering… …
04/07/2010
If you haven’t paid much attention to bond yields lately, I have a news flash for you --long-term Treasury bond yields, i.e., long-term interest rates, are on the move. Look below at the chart of… …
04/07/2010
There’s no denying that this market currently is immersed in the strongest uptrend we’ve seen in the past decade. Stocks have made a miraculous recovery off of the dramatic lows of March 2009,… …
03/31/2010
Today marks the end of the first quarter, and what a quarter of action it’s been in the financial markets. We kicked off the year with a continuation of the buying we saw in December, but by mid-January,… …
03/24/2010
The sharp sell-off we witnessed in late January and early February, followed by the 180-degree turnaround in stocks from early February to the present has many investors in a quandary about how best to… …
03/17/2010
On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve let Wall Street know that it’s going to enjoy an “extended period” of low-cost capital. The central bank was widely expected to leave interest rates untouched,… …
03/10/2010
The date was March 9, 2009, and the S&P 500 Index was trading at its lowest level since the mid-1990s. The equity market was in literal freefall, and nearly everyone on both Wall Street and Main Street… …
03/03/2010
Many of you know that I host a weekly radio show, Doug Fabian’s Wealth Strategies, in Los Angeles every Saturday morning at 10 a.m. PST. But for those of you that aren’t in the Southern California… …
03/03/2010
The major stock indices are finding their legs after six weeks of trading between the 50- and 200-day moving averages. As you can see in the chart below, the S&P 500 Index has pushed back above the… …
02/24/2010
Back home in the U.S.A., we have a much different technical picture. After sinking below its 50-day moving average, the S&P 500 Index now has fought its way back to the 50-day average. But before… …
02/24/2010
In technical analysis parlance, a black cross (sometimes known as a death cross) occurs when an index’s falling 50-day moving average meets its rising 200-day moving average. And as the ominous… …
02/17/2010
Last week, we witnessed the U.S. equity markets make a solid push higher, and we now are trading well above the February lows. In fact, we now are trading right below the key, 50-day moving average (blue… …
02/09/2010
To say that the bears have been firmly in control of the equity markets during the past several weeks would be stating the obvious. However, the sharp decline we’ve witnessed in the broad market… …
02/03/2010
Have the last couple of weeks of trading been the start of a typical correction, or is it just a short-term pullback? Or, is what we’re seeing the start of the big, bad sell-off everyone fears?… …
01/27/2010
It was the first really rough week in over 10 months. Yes, I’m talking about the nearly across-the-board selling we witnessed in stocks last week -- a sell-off that slammed the major market indices… …
01/20/2010
The market was up big on Tuesday, and down big on Wednesday. This kind of back-and-forth in equities is, I suspect, a harbinger of things to come over the next quarter. I think that we have to face the… …
01/13/2010
On Saturday, Jan. 9, I held my first investor teleconference of the year. This call was tremendously successful, and I want to thank all of you who called in and joined the fun. Now, if you didn’t… …
01/13/2010
In last week’s Alert, we introduced the concept of “trade location,” a term that simply refers to establishing a good entry point for any equity position you enter. Well, Tuesday’s… …
01/06/2010
Join me this Saturday, Jan. 9, 12:00 pm (noon) Pacific, for my first investor teleconference of the year. I will be discussing the investment landscape for 2010, and I’ll be reviewing several of… …
12/30/2009
I want to start this final Alert of the year with a few thoughts on the market of 2009, as well as a few thoughts on the market as we head into a new decade. If we stop and think about where we are at… …
12/23/2009
Although we've seen some push and shove during the last several weeks in stocks, looking at this market through a 52-week lens really tells the story of a bull on the loose since early March. The chart… …
12/16/2009
Come on up for the rising Come on up, lay your hands in mine… --Bruce Springsteen, “The Rising” I’ve been writing a lot lately about the prospect of rising interest rates (i.e.,… …
12/16/2009
We’ve been dancing around the 1,100 mark on the S&P 500 for about the past five weeks, but every time we get a little too far above this level, stocks seem to bleed back toward the 1,100 support… …
12/02/2009
Let’s start off this week’s Alert with a quick glance at a chart of the S&P 500 Index for the past two months. As you can see, we’ve basically been mired in a trading range between… …
11/25/2009
This time of year, we normally can count on the market being in full-rally mode. There is a term that I use in my book "Maverick Investing" to describe this time of year. I call it the growth… …
11/18/2009
The key metric in the market since last week has been the breaching of the psychologically and technically significant 1,100 mark on the S&P 500 Index. The index managed to punch a hole in this ceiling… …
11/11/2009
This market once again has proven that it's in full bull mode, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting yet another 52-week high. To say that this has been an impressive run higher since we… …
11/04/2009
Over the past several months, I have been sharing my views on how to manage your portfolio during these unprecedented economic times via a teleconference series entitled: The Obama Impact on Your Money… …
11/04/2009
Today's Federal Reserve decision to leave interest rates unchanged, at essentially zero, came as little surprise to Wall Street. But as has become the norm on Fed decision days, the reading of the tea… …
10/28/2009
One clear sign that a market has reached the top is a rotation of market leadership. When sectors that have led the market higher begin to falter, and when laggard sectors begin to show signs of life,… …
10/28/2009
Over the past two weeks, there's been a decided attitude adjustment in the equity markets. Sellers have stepped in and taken their profits off of the table, and the sell-off now has pushed the S&P… …
10/21/2009
God didn't make little green apples And it don't rain in Indianapolis in the summertime --Roger Miller, "Little Green Apples" The chorus from the classic country ditty "Little Green Apples"… …
10/14/2009
Stocks are surging this morning on news of better-than-expected earnings from bellwethers Intel and JP Morgan. The S&P 500 Index now is above its Sept. 23 high of 1080. So, does this new high represent… …
10/08/2009
The big buzz in the market this week was the rumored demise of the U.S. dollar. The dollar dipped sharply in Tuesday's trade on chatter that oil prices may be pegged to the euro rather than the greenback… …
09/30/2009
I’m no expert on movies, but I do consider myself pretty knowledgeable when it comes to the economy and the financial markets. Well, this Friday, the world of film and financial markets will intersect… …
09/30/2009
I’ve received a number of emails from Alert readers, and from my investment advisory services subscribers, concerning the recommendations that we be patient and pick our spots carefully at this… …
09/23/2009
In my line of work, I often get emails that are very gratifying. This month, I thought I'd share one such email with you that you also can be a part of. Here's the text straight from my inbox. Dear Mr… …
09/23/2009
On Tuesday, Sept. 15, we conducted the second installment of our teleconference on "The Obama Impact on Your Money." Judging by the slew of emails I received, the event was a resounding success… …
09/23/2009
Regular readers of the Alert know that I often present charts of key market indicators such as the S&P 500 Index, oil, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) of leading market segments such as China… …
09/16/2009
This market is just downright crazy. It seems like no matter what happens in the economy, with earnings, on the political front or on the world stage, stocks still act like the Energizer Bunny -- they… …
08/05/2009
Today's market pullback could be the start of a wane in the recent bear market rally. I say could be, because it's way too early to tell if the steam has run out on Wall Street's summer bash. I think… …
07/29/2009
Part of my duties each day is to keep up on all the financial news chatter. Yesterday, I was struck with the number of financial pundits who claim that the recession is now over, and that we've already… …
07/15/2009
It's summertime and the living is easy Fish are jumping and the cotton is high Your daddy's rich and your mama's good-looking Hush, little baby don't you cry --Sam Cooke, "Summertime" I live… …
07/08/2009
Back in March, at the very beginning of what became a huge run higher for stocks, I was skeptical that the market could mount a sustainable rally. As the months went by, I remained skeptical; however,… …
04/15/2009
I'm hearing a whole lot of chatter amongst the financial pundit class about this current rally being the start of a booming new bull market. And while I agree that the nearly 25% climb by the S&P… …
04/08/2009
This week started out with a pause in the recent market rally. However, today the play button on the rally seems to have been pushed once again. I think Monday's pullback makes sense, especially in the… …
03/18/2009
Looking back over the landscape of the markets, the S&P 500 Index hit an intra-day low of 666 on March 6, 2009. Since that point, the market has rallied more than 16% through yesterday's close. It… …
01/28/2009
The big news in the markets this week is the very strong rally, which was prompted by two key factors. The first is the expected Congressional approval of an $816 billion economic stimulus plan. Yes,… …
01/21/2009
As the economy slows, one reasonably safe sector that you may want to consider is municipal "muni" bonds. Muni bonds are issued by cities, states and other local governments to raise money for… …
01/14/2009
Stocks took another big tumble in Wednesday's trading, and by now I think most of us are suffering from what best could be described as bear market fatigue. I know there were a lot of financial pundits… …
01/14/2009
As the economy slows, one reasonably safe sector that you may want to consider is municipal "muni" bonds. Muni bonds are issued by cities, states and other local governments to raise money for… …
12/03/2008
The bear market of 2008 is still with us, and despite the recent spat of bullish days for stocks, we are still way below both the short- and long-term trends in the overall market. As you can see from… …
11/12/2008
Now that the uncertainty has disappeared as to who will move into the White House, the uncertainty as to how President-elect Obama will address the problems facing this nation has just begun.
That uncertainty… …
11/05/2008
The results are in, and now we all know that Sen. Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States. Now that the uncertainty has disappeared as to who will move into the White House, the uncertainty… …
10/29/2008
The Federal Reserve just cut its target for the federal funds rate, the interest banks charge on overnight loans, by 50 basis points. The fed funds rate now sits at 1%, its lowest level since 2004. Today's… …
10/29/2008
In less than a week America will elect a new president, and as we draw closer to Nov. 4, Sen. Barack Obama has opened a substantial lead in most of the polls. I still think the race will be very, very… …
10/22/2008
Last week, we witnessed a bit of a comeback in stocks, as the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite all managed to log their first winning week in many months. Yet in a testament to the tremendous volatility… …
10/22/2008
In less than two weeks America will elect a new president, and as we draw closer to Nov. 4, Sen. Barack Obama has opened a substantial lead in most of the polls. I still think the race will be very, very… …
10/15/2008
The market madness during the past week has been truly stunning. The tumultuous volatility in equities has been unprecedented, and even the most ardent adjectival devices fail to capture the essence of… …
10/15/2008
The race for the White House is nearing the finish line, and tonight we’ll get a chance to see the final tête-à-tête between Democratic Party presidential nominee Barack Obama… …
10/08/2008
Today's stock market beast is not the same animal it was a decade ago. In fact, the pace of change has been relentless in recent years, and even the most conscientious individual investor has had a tough… …
10/01/2008
I can't remember a time in my life when financial markets and a presidential election overlapped so acutely. With the market plummeting and a bailout of our banking system on the way, you have every reason… …
10/01/2008
Today's stock market beast is not the same animal it was a decade ago. In fact, the pace of change has been relentless in recent years, and even the most conscientious individual investor has had a tough… …
09/24/2008
I can’t remember a time in my life when financial markets and a presidential election overlapped so acutely. With the market plummeting and a bailout of our banking system on the way, you have every… …
09/24/2008
Today’s stock market beast is not the same animal it was a decade ago. In fact, the pace of change has been relentless in recent years, and even the most conscientious individual investor has had… …
09/17/2008
Today's stock market beast is not the same animal it was a decade ago. In fact, the pace of change has been relentless in recent years, and even the most conscientious individual investor has had a tough… …
09/17/2008
The presidential election polls are gyrating like the stock market these days. Sen. Obama had an eight-point lead after the Democratic Convention, only to see it slip away after Sen. McCain's surprise… …
09/10/2008
Today's stock market beast is not the same animal it was a decade ago. In fact, the pace of change has been relentless in recent years, and even the most conscientious individual investor has had a tough… …
09/10/2008
The presidential election polls are gyrating like the stock market these days. Sen. Obama had an eight-point lead after the Democratic Convention, only to see it slip away after Sen. McCain's surprise… …
09/03/2008
Join Fairway Capital President Kevin Yurkus and me on Thursday, Sept. 18, 2008 from 2:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. at the Ritz-Carlton, Phoenix hotel for the most important financial seminar of the year. The… …
08/20/2008
The greenback is back! That's right, the value of the U.S. dollar versus rival foreign currencies has surged during the past several weeks, and that surge has caused quite the dust up in the international… …
07/09/2008
I was interviewed yesterday by my Los Angeles radio affiliate regarding my views on the economy and the stock market. In the interview, I explained that stocks are a leading indicator for the overall… …
06/18/2008
"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us -- be prepared." —Bob Janjuah, Royal Bank of Scotland credit strategist When one of the world's premiere banking institutions, The Royal Bank… …
04/23/2008
This morning, the newspaper Investor's Business Daily interviewed me for an upcoming article about how a lot of companies are likely to start cutting their dividends. In my opinion, we are at the beginning… …
04/17/2008
We've seen it time and time again this year. The it is the phenomenon of a bear market rally. That's what happened Wednesday, April 16, with the major averages all surging more than 2% in the trading… …
04/02/2008
On Tuesday, April 1, we saw a huge jump in stocks that was nearly across the board. The major averages all were up more than 3% on the day, and that brought the bullish commentators out in droves. I heard… …
03/19/2008
By now I suspect that most of you are intimately acquainted with the bailout of Bear Stearns (BSC) by the Federal Reserve and rival bank JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM). That's why I am not going to rehash… …
03/12/2008
"How odd it is that anyone should not see that all observation must be for or against some view if it is to be of any service!" —Charles Darwin One of the greatest scientists of all time,… …
02/27/2008
There is no denying that stocks are back on the move, and during the past several days the equity markets have rallied in the face of some really bad news. What kind of bad news? Well, the latest Producer… …
02/13/2008
If you've been an Alert reader for more than just a couple of weeks, you know that I've been saying we are in a bear market. In fact, ever since the proverbial line in the sand at about 1410 on… …
02/06/2008
It seems like just last week we had freed ourselves from the bear’s stranglehold. Well, actually, it was just last week that we witnessed one of the best rallies in years. We had an aggressive Fed… …
01/30/2008
Everybody's worried about the economy right now, especially the Federal Reserve. We saw the central bank's solution to things today, and so far the market has responded positively to the 50-basis-point… …
12/05/2007
"I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." —Sir Isaac Newton When it comes to figuring it out the direction of stocks, we can all learn a lot from… …
12/05/2007
Lately, I've heard the following phrase bandied about the financial press: "Breaking the buck." Let me tell you that this disturbing saying is one we all need to be concerned about. In fact,… …
11/28/2007
During the past few weeks the technical damage to stock prices has been severe. We broke below the August lows in the Dow Jones Industrials and in the Russell 2000, but we managed to bounce off of those… …
11/21/2007
First off, let me just say that I have many great memories of past Thanksgiving celebrations. This is almost a sacred day of family gathering and feasting for me and my loved ones. I am looking forward… …
10/24/2007
It was an ugly day on Wall Street, as the major market averages pulled back early Wednesday after Merrill Lynch (MER) announced that severe credit-related losses would smack its bottom line. In addition… …
08/22/2007
The way I am approaching this market, you'd think I was born and raised in Missouri. That's because the "Show-Me" state's famous motto of skepticism is how I think any smart investor should… …
08/15/2007
Over the past few stunning weeks of market volatility, many people have called my radio show, e-mailed me and even stopped me on the street to ask me what direction I think this market is headed. People… …
08/15/2007
Last week I ran a great piece by mortgage and real estate expert Josh Lewis on just what is happening now in the mortgage market, and how that relates to you. I got so much positive feedback on this piece… …
08/08/2007
By Josh Lewis Anyone who watches the nightly news or reads the newspaper is well aware that the "subprime mess" now has become the "mortgage market meltdown." What most people don't… …
08/01/2007
As much as people wish it wasn't so, we have to acknowledge that we now have entered a bear market in real estate. Why are we in a bear market in real estate? Well, foreclosures will reach an all-time… …
07/25/2007
Soaring then diving, jumping then dipping. That's about the best way to describe this market over the past week or so. Just last Thursday the Dow eclipsed the 14,000 mark, setting yet another record high… …
07/18/2007
There's simply no denying it. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 have been on a roll lately. Well, at least they were on a roll before today's action. On Tuesday, the Industrial Average… …
05/03/2007
On the ETF Trader news front this week, I want to introduce you to a new country-specific fund that just began trading. Its name is the Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX). This fund just began trading this… …
03/21/2007
The market meandered within a tight trading range this morning, but after the Fed offered hints that the economy seems likely "to continue to expand at a moderate pace," stocks went right through… …
02/21/2007
To say that the current market is overbought would be the height of understatement. The major averages keep making new multi-year highs. As a result, the indexes keep getting further and further away… …
01/10/2007
It didn't take long for 2007 to kick into high gear and nowhere was this more evident than the hefty sell-off in the energy sector. Oil prices got slammed to start 2007 and caused an oil slick that sent… …
11/15/2006
Since the lifting of last Tuesday's election uncertainty, the major market indices have continued their upward march. The Dow still is treading on the path which has led it to new all-time highs, while… …
09/14/2006
We warned you last week about the historically tough time for equities during the month of September. Well, so far, that trend hasn't held true during 2006. Stocks have seen a pretty solid move to the… …
08/31/2006
An uneventful week for the major markets has the indices sitting about right where they were when I wrote to you last week. Enticed by a last chance to enjoy the summer, traders and investors have brought… …
08/24/2006
Last week's rally turned out to be a short sprint that completely lacked any endurance. The sporadic market movements are just more of the same activity that we have seen since mid-May, reflecting completely… …
08/10/2006
Yesterday's decision by the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates for the first time in more than two years was supposed to be greeted with a big celebration on Wall Street. Initially, stocks did… …
07/20/2006
It's been a wild week in the financial markets since last Wednesday's Alert. We witnessed renewed violence in the Middle East that sent stocks reeling; bringing a wave of fear to Wall Street that knocked… …
07/05/2006
One of the trends in this market that is definitely not up for debate is the downtrend in large-cap technology stocks as measured by the Nasdaq 100 Index. One look at the chart below and you can see that… …
06/07/2006
Don't worry; I am not going to bore you with the details of the traditional children's story. Rather, I have my own version the tale. First we have Goldilocks, who in our story is the economy. Like the… …
05/31/2006
Yesterday's huge drop in stocks -- the Dow and S&P 500 both sank over 1.5%, while the Nasdaq plunged over 2% -- reminded us all that the prospect of a correction, and very possibly the start of a… …
05/24/2006
I'm back home now after last week's trek to Sin City for the Las Vegas Money Show. While I was there, I had the opportunity to give a seminar with the timely title: Worry no more about a down stock market… …
05/10/2006
OK, we all know that stocks are hitting new multi-year highs every day. Commodities prices are soaring, energy stocks are vaulting higher along with the price of crude oil, and international stocks continue… …
04/12/2006
The markets have been dominated by energy concerns of late, and with the price of a barrel of crude oil ascending toward the $70 mark, it's easy to see why. Potential supply disruptions and an impending… …
02/08/2006
On Tuesday home building bellwether Toll Brothers (TOL) announced weaker-than-expected first quarter orders, while also telling The Street that it expected lower new home deliveries for the rest of 2006… …
02/01/2006
Yesterday the Federal Reserve raised interest rates another quarter percentage point, pushing borrowing costs to their highest point in five years. More importantly, the central bank also hinted that… …
01/25/2006
Last week's wild ride in the stock market proved the importance of a strong sell discipline. Last Wednesday's tumble in Japan and the spillover effect we witnessed here in our own markets had us selling… …
01/25/2006
The news from Ford is just the latest reminder that there are ebbs and flows for economies, even ours, and marketplace behemoths don't rule forever as the mighty can and do fall. Dynasties eventually… …
01/18/2006
Strong selling in the Nikkei prompted an early close of that market in early Wednesday trading and a spillover has occurred on Wall Street. I have advised my Successful Investing subscribers to take defensive… …
01/11/2006
Big news hit the major stock indices this week as the Dow Jones Industrial Average not only reached, but held onto, 11,000. Tuesday's trading found the markets digesting broad-based consolidation, but… …
01/04/2006
What a difference a trading day makes! Last Friday’s trading session closed the books on Wall Street for 2005 and it was pretty unexciting. The S&P 500 Index eked out a 3% gain for the year… …
12/28/2005
An inversion in the yield curve sent the markets south in yesterday’s post-holiday trading session. The trading started out fairly positive in weak volume as investors seemed pleased with the prospect… …
12/21/2005
The market is not delivering the big rally we have all come to hope for and expect as investors get into the buying mood at this time of year, even on Wall Street. Homebuilders expressed some sour sentiment… …
12/14/2005
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates, yet again, yesterday. The market responded by adding a nice 56 points, enough to put the end of the year rally back on track. The best news to come out of the… …
12/07/2005
The end of the year upswing seems to be showing signs of resistance. The indexes are looking skyward, to be sure, but the closing numbers don’t seem to be reflecting the sentiments of the daily… …
11/30/2005
Huge increases in the manufacturing sector, new home sales and consumer confidence are responsible for creating a buoyant backdrop for the financial markets that may well provide the much-needed follow… …
11/23/2005
Solid gains in the equity markets have pushed the Dow Jones Industrial average into the black for the first time since March of this year. The S&P's gains have pushed that index to its highs for the… …
11/16/2005
The market has made impressive gains over the last couple of weeks, but the upward momentum seems to be losing steam as investors weigh inflation and earnings prospects. Fed chairman nominee Ben Bernanke's… …
01/19/2005
Year to date, investors in individual stocks have been punished for their optimism. Small caps are down 5% just since the first of the year--a mere 19 days ago. The Nasdaq is following closely behind,… …