03/30/2011
Over the past two months, we’ve talked about the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that make up my top seven list for 2011. Now that our series is complete, I wanted to give you a quick recap on each of these funds. The ETFs listed here are in order of how we presented them, and not in any order suggesting that I favor some over others.
1) SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration (XOP)
This ETF is designed to deliver performance, before fees and expenses, equal to the move in the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry Index. This index contains some of the biggest and most profitable oil and gas exploration companies operating today. Some of the top companies in XOP are Cimarex Energy (XEC), Forest Oil Corporation (FST), Atlas Energy, Inc. (ATLS) and Sunoco (SUN). Owning XOP allows you to participate in both the bullish trends in stocks and the current increase in the price of crude oil.
2) Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO)
This agricultural stock ETF seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the DAXglobal Agribusiness index. That index includes some of the biggest corporate names in the agriculture and food production industries. Standout firms such as Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (POT), Monsanto (MON), Deere & Co (DE) and Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) are just a few of the top companies in MOO. As commodity food prices rise, the fortunes of stocks in MOO also are likely to rise.
3) Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK)
This ETF is designed to deliver performance equal to the general performance of publicly traded equities of companies in the technology sector. The fund holds 85 tech stocks, and among the top holdings are stalwart tech names such as Apple Inc. (AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), International Business Machines (IBM), AT&T Inc. (T) and Google Inc. (GOOG). One key reason for my optimism is that after a couple of years of very low capital expenditures on technology upgrades, companies in America and around the globe finally are starting to put money into their long-awaited upgrade cycles. That likely will mean strong earnings for the biggest and best tech companies out there -- companies that make up XLK.
4) Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
This is a fund representing gold, silver and other precious metals mining stocks. More specifically, GDX seeks performance results that replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the AMEX Gold Miners index. The companies contained in GDX represent a who’s who of the mining industry. Top holdings include Barrick Gold Corp (ABX), Goldcorp Inc (GG), Newmont Mining Corp (NEM), AngloGold Ashanti Ltd (AU) and Kinross Gold Corp (KGC). We all know what’s happened to the price of precious metals of late, and that big uptrend is likely to continue in 2011 -- and that’s great news for GDX.
5) ProShares Ultra Dow 30 Fund (DDM)
This fund is a bullish, speculative play on the upside potential of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This is not a fund for newbie investors, or for those who don’t have much risk tolerance when it comes to their capital. That’s because DDM is a fund designed to deliver twice the daily performance, less fees and expenses, of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. If this market continues to go up in the face of war, earthquakes, tsunamis and nuclear meltdowns, then a leveraged bet on the most widely followed stock index certainly will deliver some very robust profits.
6) ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
This fund essentially is a double-down bet against the appreciation of the euro vs. the U.S. dollar. The fund seeks to provide daily investment results (before fees and expenses) that correspond to twice the inverse of the daily performance of the U.S. dollar price of the euro. The euro-dollar trade has been very volatile during the past year, but I suspect we’ll see a decline in the euro and a rebound in the dollar, and that could be the catalyst needed to put some risk capital into EUO.
7) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
This fund is basically a leveraged bet against the price of long-term Treasury bonds. Another way to put it is that TBT is a 2-beta bet on rising interest rates. The fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses and interest income earned on cash and financial instruments, which correspond to twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Barclays Capital 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Bond Index. So, if long-term Treasury bond prices fall 2%, TBT should climb 4%. The traditional “flight to quality” that we saw in Treasuries as a result of global unrest or natural disaster (and this time both) caused money to pour into Treasury bonds (and caused a pullback in TBT in mid-March). However, I think that the fear in the market caused by these events has largely subsided, and that’s put TBT back on track for more gains in 2011.