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ETF Talk: The Potential Silver Lining of ObamaCare (XLV)

03/24/2010

After months and months of debates, gridlock and uncertainty, President Obama signed into law his coveted health-care overhaul, “ObamaCare,” with implications for you and your investment portfolio. If you feel like I do about the folly of tax-and-spend politicians adding wildly to our deficit, it’s difficult to have a “glass-half-full” kind of attitude about this legislation. While the plan is intended to provide insurance for an estimated 32 million additional Americans, it is projected to cost $938 billion during the next ten years. But the legislation also may help certain health-care companies, since the number of people who have insurance will grow dramatically, as will health-care spending.

Because it’s difficult to say exactly which stocks will benefit from ObamaCare, since we still are learning about the contents of the unwieldy new law, investors who are bullish on health care may want to consider an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that allows exposure to the entire sector. One such broad-based ETF is the Health Care Select Sector (XLV). Companies in this fund primarily include those that manufacture health-care equipment and supplies, provide health-care services, offer biotechnology and develop pharmaceuticals.

The price of XLV jumped Monday but has been trending downward since then. It now may be approaching levels where bullish investors might be ready to place buy orders. The chart below shows that the frothy overflow of investment interest that surfaced Monday morning appears to be settling down.

The following table indicates the top holdings of the fund. It largely contains big-name health-care companies that should help to limit volatility, compared to a fund that might invest in high-risk, development-stage start-ups.

Although ObamaCare may be bad news for overburdened American taxpayers, the new health-care law likely will boost sales for a number of health-care companies. As you can see from the chart below, XLV has risen sharply in the last month and may have further upside ahead. Like many other investments during this shaky time, XLV is risky, and I do not advise it for the faint-hearted.

As far as the bill itself, the money to pay for the new government spending is going to have to come from somewhere and, unfortunately, I’m afraid it’s going to come from people like you and me. Affluent families, successful entrepreneurs, investors and employers will have to pay additional taxes and fees to fund this unbelievable debt.

If you want my advice about which ETFs to buy and to sell, please sign up for my ETF Trader service by clicking here. As always, I am glad to answer your questions about ETFs, so do not hesitate to email me if you have one. To send an ETF question to me, simply click here. You may see your question answered in a future ETF Talk.

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