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ETF Talk: Riding Long-Term Treasuries Higher

04/07/2011

For the past few weeks, I’ve given you ways to profit despite the chaos we’ve seen around the globe -- particularly in the Middle East and Japan. Today, I have another investment to highlight that has the potential to rise, even if the stock markets remain volatile. The fund that I want to put on your investment radar screen is the ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT).

This fund is designed to deliver twice the daily performance of the Barclays Capital 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Bond Index. So, if long-term bonds move up 2%, UBT should jump 4%. This recommendation is intended to take advantage of what I suspect could be another short-term reversal in the direction of long-term Treasury bond yields. As you can see from the chart below, the final quarter of 2010 and early 2011 was particularly rough for bond prices. Since February and through the rest of the quarter, they began a bumpy recovery. But I think bonds are ripe for another -- perhaps more substantial -- bounce. And taking advantage of that bounce with a leveraged fund like UBT offers the potential to supercharge your gains.

As a whole, the bond market showed some resiliency throughout the first quarter, though it endured a couple of slight pullbacks. This relative strength occurred at the same time that the stock market was shaky, as investors moved towards safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries to protect their money from Middle East turmoil and the triple disasters of an earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown in Japan.

Also keeping bond yields attractive is the fact that interest rates have remained near historic lows, as the Fed keeps short-term rates close to zero. The Fed further has limited long-term rates through QE2 -- the U.S. central bank’s quantitative-easing program to buy $600 billion in Treasury debt.

Another positive factor for the fund is the continuing debt problems in Europe. The European debt crisis has spread from Greece to Ireland, leaving Italy, Portugal and Spain as countries that rating agencies are watching with concern for possible downgrades.

In the short term, these factors are good news for long-term treasuries, and even better news for a leveraged bet such as UBT. Keep in mind that when QE2 ends, the prospects for long-term treasuries and UBT will turn bearish. But in the meantime, UBT is positioned to rise when world events scare investors and they turn to U.S. Treasuries for safety.

In fact, my ETF Trader subscribers were able to capitalize on a short-term jump in treasuries during the first quarter with UBT. That recommendation rose 12% in just over a month before the fund’s recent pullback. However, the fund’s retreat may entice you to consider buying it at a reduced price.

For advice about which ETFs to buy and to sell, I urge you to sign up for my ETF Trader service. As always, I am pleased to answer any of your questions about ETFs, so don't hesitate to contact me if you have one. To send a question to me, simply click here. You may just see your question answered in a future ETF Talk.

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