03/10/2010
If you’re anything like me, you enjoy turkey at Thanksgiving. But my sights at this time of the year now are set on the country of Turkey, which is offering what could be an appetizing investment opportunity through the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR). That exchange-traded fund (ETF) gives investors exposure to a promising emerging market.
This ETF zoomed a jaw-dropping 98% in 2009 when the Turkish stock market was one of the world’s top performers. An interest rate cut to record lows by Turkey’s Central Bank last year probably fueled the stock market’s gains. Unfortunately, though, the first two months of 2010 have not been quite as kind, with the fund dipping 3.6% year-to-date through March 9 and dropping 13.3% in February alone.
TUR is a pure play on the Turkish stock market, since it seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI Turkey Investable Market Index. That index measures the performance of the Turkish equity market.
So far, 2010 has ushered in new insecurities about the country’s ability to get its economic and political act together. In fact, The ISE National 100 stock market index dropped in February on news that the Turkish government arrested 40 military officials due to an alleged coup plot in 2003. The unexpected development and concerns that it could snowball sent the country’s market and its currency, the lira, falling. It seems that wary investors have headed for the exits, but Turkey still could provide a good opportunity for investors who are willing to take a bit of a risk. And now may be the perfect time, since prices are far lower than they were just two months ago.
If you are unfamiliar with Turkey, here’s a quick snapshot of its tumultuous past and promising future. With a population of 72 million people, Turkey is positioned on the strategically important border between Europe and Asia. A persistent candidate for entry into the European Union (EU), negotiations between Turkey and the EU keep stalling because of Turkey's lack of economic reform programs.
While it once was an economic basket case, Turkey has been rebounding during the last decade by reining in inflation. Turkey’s reward is that its economy grew an average of nearly 6% between 2002 and 2008. Unfortunately, the credit crunch in 2008 and 2009 hit the Turkish economy hard and caused it to shrink 13.8% in the first quarter of 2009 and by 5.8% for the full year. However, Turkey’s fiscal and monetary stimulus programs, combined with a healthy banking sector, helped to cushion the blow. Unlike other emerging markets in Europe, Turkey survived the financial downturn without relying on an emergency bailout package from external lenders. The country now is expected to grow 3.5% to 4% this year.
A further encouraging sign arose Feb. 19, when Standard & Poor’s raised its long-term foreign currency and local currency sovereign credit ratings to BB and BB+, respectively. Although such ratings are still below investment grade, this action should have been positive for the Turkish stock market. However, news broke shortly thereafter of the alleged military coup plot from 2003 that sent the ETF plummeting. It simply shows that Turkey is a volatile market and investors must be ready to brave the plunges, while they also look to ride the surges.
Given Turkey’s resilience in the face of economic crisis, I think TUR is worthy of considering as an emerging market investment. Of course, TUR carries risk, so this ETF is not for the faint-hearted. If you are willing to take a risk, this ETF’s recent price dip could let you buy shares in the fund at a relatively discounted price.
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