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ETF Talk: A Steely Bet on Japan's Recovery

03/24/2011

As recently devastated Japan ramps up building efforts along with emerging markets in Asia and Latin America, demand for steel will be on the rise. To let you profit from this emerging trend, I found the Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX), an ETF aimed at letting you tap into this infrastructure boom.

The fund seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the NYSE Arca Steel Index. The index is a modified capitalization-weighted index that provides exposure to publicly traded companies primarily involved in activities that are related to steel production. Such activities include the operation of manufacturing mills, fabrication of steel products, or the extraction and reduction of iron ore.

SLX contains some of the biggest and brightest mining companies in the world. As of March 22, 2011, the fund’s top five holdings were Vale SA, 11.93%; Rio Tinto, 11.70%; ArcelorMittal, 9.14%; POSCO, 6.50%; and Cliffs Natural Resources Inc., 5.35%. As you’ll see in the two-year chart below of SLX, it has been on a roller-coaster ride but it now is heading upward. Indeed, in 2009, SLX rose 113.2%, and in 2010, it climbed 19.88%. The beginning of 2011 has seen less robust gains, but I think the prospects for steel remain good, especially with the inevitable rebuilding that will be needed in Japan.

It is nearly impossible to find any kind of silver lining in the horrific disasters that Japan has faced this month. The combination of an earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown has caused severe hardship to the people who live there. However, Japan remains the world’s third-largest economy and its citizens proved their resilience by rebuilding after World War II. Indeed, they transformed the country into an economic powerhouse.

Early estimates from Credit Suisse and Barclays to rebuild Japan’s infrastructure reach $180 billion, equaling about 3% of Japan’s GDP. However, in the days and weeks to come, many observers expect this number to rise as high as 5% of the country’s GDP. Of course, with a massive death toll, widespread power outages and still-unknown nuclear consequences, Japan has a very long road ahead of it to recover fully.

One thing that investors definitely can expect in the midst of this disaster is increased use of steel to rebuild the country’s infrastructure. And this rise in demand from Japan comes at the same time as other parts of the developing world are ramping up production of cars, bridges, machinery and factories. This big spike in demand will push up the price of steel, and that also should push up the price of steel-related ETFs such as SLX.

As always, I am happy to answer any of your questions about ETFs, so don't hesitate to contact me if you have one. To send a question to me, simply click here. You may just see your question answered in a future ETF Talk.

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