My friend and colleague, Nicholas Vardy, is a money manager and writer of the weekly e-letter, The Global Guru, which I highly recommend to all of my Alert readers. In the latest edition, titled “The Future Ain’t What It Used to Be,” Nicholas offers us some profound observations on the perils of financial prognostication.

He correctly points out that few economists and market pundits ever really have to account for the accuracy of their calls, while those of us who manage money must be accountable to our clients everyday. He also correctly points out that two of the most accepted prognostications of last year -- the unstoppable rise of the Chinese stock market, and the imminent demise of the U.S. Treasury bond market -- both failed to materialize in 2009.

Nicholas concludes his thoughtful piece by admitting that “it’s tough out there” for investors trying to profit from the trends in this market. He points out that the market hasn’t really done much during the past six months, and that the global rally many expected to take place in the fourth quarter never really happened. Finally, Nicholas points out that the simple strategy of staying “dumb and long” has been the single best moneymaker over the past year.

No, neither Nicholas nor I advocate a blind buy-and-hold investment philosophy. But what we can say, and what we all must admit, is that sometimes simplicity does work --despite what all of the pundits are telling you.

If you’d like to read Nicholas’ fantastic e-letter for yourself each week, I strongly encourage you to check out The Global Guru today.