05/05/2010
Tuesday’s violent drop in stocks certainly rattled equity markets around the globe. These markets already were skittish about the recent debt downgrades in Greece, Portugal and Spain. And, news that the European Union hadn’t yet reached a solution to Greece’s debt crisis really ramped up the international selling. In fact, Tuesday’s sell-off sent some rather heavily watched world indices below their long-term, 200-day moving averages.
Check out the price action here in the chart below of the iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA). This widely followed exchange-traded fund (ETF) is pegged to the performance of stocks traded in Europe, Australasia and the Far East. Basically, EFA can be seen as a proxy for international equities, sans the United States, throughout the globe.
As you can see, EFA plunged well below both its short- and long-term trend lines, after having made a pronounced run higher from early February to early April. But the international equity drubbing really kicked into high gear during the last week, and that selling went into hyper-drive on Tuesday.
It was much the same story for stocks traded in China. A glance here at the chart of the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI) shows that it also now trades below both its short- and long-term moving averages. Again, this decline comes after a period of stellar upside from early February through early April.
Both of these charts clearly show the prevailing trend in international markets, so if you have a lot of international equity exposure here, you absolutely must have stop-loss orders in place on all of your international equity positions. With the endgame in Greece still undecided -- and with deadly riots in the streets over proposed austerity measures --we just don’t know how far international equity markets can fall.
The upside to this international equity sell-off is that now that these sectors have fallen below their 200-day moving averages, any resurgence in these stocks that takes them back above the international market's 200-day average likely would serve as a green light to get back into these sectors.
You see, by shaking out much of the nervous money in these stocks, and by waiting for these sectors to climb back above their long-term trend lines, you may hitch a ride on a revitalized bull market in international equities. Of course, this is a big if at this stage, especially considering that we just fell below the 200-day average on Tuesday. But I don’t think it’s ever too early to start thinking about potential buying opportunities, and while those opportunities may be a ways away, my radar is tuned to the inevitable recovery in the international equity segment.
One more interesting thing about international markets here is the percentage that these indices now are below their respective 200-day averages. In the table below, we see the “worst of the worst” when it comes to global markets.
As you can see, Spain and Italy top the list of international markets with the largest gap between current share price and their respective 200-day moving averages. Australia and Taiwan are the two international markets holding up the best here, but even these markets are in the red with respect to this all-important metric.
This table clearly shows the negative trend in markets around the globe, and it should serve as yet another reason to protect your holdings from any further international selling.
If you want to find out when international stocks are safe to buy again, then you need my Successful Investing advisory service. Our International Plan uses the movement of our proprietary International Fund Composite to tell us when to sell and when to buy international stocks. If you want to be ready for the next international equity market buying opportunity, then check out Successful Investing today.