03/23/2011
Considering all of the massive global turmoil we’ve seen over the past several weeks, it’s actually stunning to see that the market has held up so well. The respective crises in Egypt, Libya, and of course, Japan, probably should have sent stocks into a bear market.
Yet that’s far from what’s happened.
In fact, from peak to trough, the S&P 500 Index has only fallen 7%. That’s certainly a correction, but it’s nothing close to a bear market. Actually, I was expecting the selling to be even more severe than it’s been. And while I remain bullish on the equity markets and the U.S. economy in the intermediate and long term, I think we may not be out of the woods yet when it comes to the current correction.
I suspect we could see stocks run up to more resistance at just above the 1,300 mark, as the 50-day moving average on the S&P 500 currently rests at 1,304. I think what we could see is another wave of technical selling that likely would shake out the weakest holders. We also could see more tensions rise in war-torn Libya, and that would keep the pressure on those triple-digit oil prices.
Once this scenario does play out -- and once the correction comes to a complete stop -- that’s when we are likely to get that behemoth buying opportunity we’ve all been waiting for.
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