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Japan and the Markets

03/16/2011

The top story -- perhaps the only story -- right now is Japan. The horrific combination of earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown is almost worse than anyone can imagine. Yet through the entire tragedy, there hasn’t been one reported incident of looting or civil unrest. In fact, it’s been just the opposite. The courageous Japanese people are facing this incredible crisis with discipline, class and honor that befits their grand culture. I think it’s safe to say that very few other nations facing such disaster would act with the kind of grace under pressure that Japan has displayed.

Of course, the aftermath of the destruction and ongoing nuclear calamity in Japan has reverberated throughout the global financial markets. Domestic stocks, international stocks and, understandably, Japanese stocks have sold off sharply since last Friday. The selling in the domestic markets can be seen here in the chart of the S&P 500 Index.

As you can see, we just broke below the 50-day moving average on the S&P 500, and we now are trading below 1,270 on the index. That’s a sharp sell-off indeed, and I think the worst may not be over. I expect more selling in stocks before we see a stabilization of domestic and global markets.

With that said, I do think that the bull market and global economic recovery still are intact. In fact, I am of the opinion that once stocks fall far enough below their recent highs, and once the fear-based selling stops, we are liable to see a big rebound in equities here in the United States -- which means we could be on the verge of a fantastic buying opportunity.

As for Japan, understandably, the country’s equity markets have been pummeled in recent days. Look here at the chart of the iShares MSCI Japan Index (EWJ).

There’s certainly been a massive plunge in the value of this Japan ETF since the natural disaster struck. And though it’s going to take some time for the nation to rebuild -- and likely some time before EWJ recovers -- I expect the tenacity and strength of the Japanese people to prevail.

I don’t know if that means we are likely to see a rebound in Japan’s equity markets anytime soon, but what it does mean is that I wouldn’t write off Japan and her ability to make a comeback. Remember, Japan remains the third-largest economy in the world behind only China and the United States. Despite the herculean effort that will be required to rebuild the shattered communities most affected by the disaster, I expect the Japanese will meet the challenge.

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