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A Case of Golden Divergence

06/09/2011

After a big sell-off at the beginning of May, the price of gold -- as measured by the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) -- has come on strong. This ETF measures the spot price of gold, and that price is up about 5% during the past five weeks.

 

The gain in GLD has not, however, been reflected in the value of gold mining stocks. Here we see that the Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX), an ETF pegged to stocks in the gold and precious metals mining sector, has crumbled since early May. Over the past five weeks, these stocks are down approximately 9% -- a clear case of golden divergence if I’ve ever seen it.

Part of the reason for the luster in spot gold is no doubt due to the uncertainty that’s crept into the market of late. Falling manufacturing numbers, anemic jobs numbers, declining consumer confidence readings and worries over the European debt crisis are just some of the reasons why investors have sought the shelter of gold.

Yet, in my opinion, gold mining stocks form a sector that’s been way too oversold here. Right now, I am actually looking at GDX as a potential buying opportunity. I am not yet ready to put the miners in my portfolio, but I think once the overall market begins its inevitable comeback, we are liable to see some strong upside momentum return to the sector.

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